Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Chiefs-Bills and Cardinals-Cowboys

October 19, 2020 12:07 AM

Sunday was a monster day for sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks as NFL Week 6 dogs went 8-4 ATS with five outright wins. Unders also crushed it, going 8-4 overall. It was the best Sunday of the season for both dogs and unders.

Here are five dog outright winners

  • Bucs (+ 2.5) beat Packers 38-10
  • 49ers (+ 2) beat Rams 24-16
  • Bears (+ 1.5) beat Panthers 23-16
  • Falcons (+ 3.5) beat Vikings 40-23
  • Broncos (+ 7) beat Patriots 18-12

Contrarians and sportsbooks cashed bigly in the two most heavily bet games of the day with the Bucs and 49ers. Both only received about one-third of spread bets. The Bucs showed liability throughout the week, opening at + 2, reached a pick'em and then settling back at + 2.5. The 49ers featured clear sharp reverse line movement on Sunday Night Football, falling from + 3.5 to + 2 despite heavy betting on the Rams.

The Bears were a classic example of a sharp play. Chicago opened + 3 and fell to + 1.5 despite a slight majority of bets backing the Panthers. The Broncos (+ 10 to + 7.5) also received massive reverse line movement against the Patriots.

Here are the other dog covers

  • Washington (+ 2) lost to Giants 20-19
  • Eagles (+ 10) lost to Ravens 30-28
  • Bengals (+ 7.5) lost to Colts 31-27

Here are the four favorite covers

  • Lions (-3) beat Jags 34-16
  • Titans (-3.5) beat Texans 42-36
  • Steelers (-3) beat Browns 38-7
  • Dolphins (-8.5) beat Jets 24-0

Sharps were all over the Browns, who opened at + 4.5 and fell to + 3. They got it wrong and the Steelers rolled.

After a blistering over run in which overs hit at roughly 60% through four weeks, we've now seen big regression the past two weeks. Unders went 8-4 yesterday and are now 15-9 (63%) in Week 5 and 6. 

Today a new week begins with a pair of Monday Night Football games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for both MNF games.

5 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Both of these AFC heavyweights are looking to bounce-back after suffering their first losses of the season in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got taken down at home by the Raiders 40-32, losing straight up as 10.5-point favorites. Similarly, the Bills (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got crushed by the Titans 42-16, losing straight up as 3.5-point favorites on Tuesday night. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early smart money, combined with heavy public betting, has pushed the Chiefs from -3 all the way to -5.5. Pros targeted the Chiefs at -3 and -3.5. Now that the line has ballooned so high, the Bills are offering value. Buffalo is super contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game and also the beneficiary of an inflated line. We've also seen respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 56.5.

8:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

This late Monday Night showdown features a pair of NFC foes who just snapped two-game losing skids. But public perception of these teams couldn't be more different. The Cardinals (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) just crushed the Jets 30-10, easily covering as 7-point favorites. The Cowboys (2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS) just beat the Giants 37-34, but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. However, Dallas suffered a major blow in the Giants game as star quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a severe foot injury. He will be replaced under center by veteran Andy Dalton. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. However, despite the ticket count being even, we've seen this line fall all the way down to a pick'em. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if bets are even. So we know this line move to Dallas was caused by smart money backing the Cowboys in a buy-low spot off a big injury. We've seen some over money push this line up from 53.5 to 55.

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