Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Bucs-Giants

November 1, 2020 11:23 PM

If you're a contrarian-minded bettor who likes grabbing points instead of laying them, Sunday was about as good as it gets for you. Underdogs went a blistering 8-4 ATS, including six outright victories. Several of the most unpopular dogs of the day covered, providing a big victory for sportsbooks who took in lopsided favorite action.

Here are the six underdogs who won outright

  • Vikings (+ 6) beat Packers 28-22
  • Bengals (+ 7) beat Titans 31-20
  • Steelers (+ 4) beat Ravens 28-24
  • Dolphins (+ 3.5) beat Rams 28-17
  • Broncos (+ 3) beat Chargers 31-30
  • Raiders (+ 1) beat Browns 16-6

Sharps hit the nail on the head with the Vikings (+ 7 to + 6), Steelers (+ 5.5 to + 4) and Raiders (+ 3 + 1), who all received sharp reverse line movement in their favor despite a majority of bets backing their opponents. The Bengals were the biggest surprise of the day. Tennessee moved from -4 to -7 behind heavily lopsided action, but it didn't matter as Cincinnati won outright, cashing + 290 on the moneyline.

Here are the other two dog covers

  • Patriots (+ 4) lost to Bills 24-21
  • Bears (+ 5.5) lost to Saints 26-23 in OT

Short road dogs + 6 or less went 4-1 ATS yesterday. They are now 32-13 ATS (71%) this season. Dogs are now 67-50 ATS overall (57%).

Here are the four favorite covers

  • Colts (-3.5) beat Lions 41-21
  • Chiefs (-19.5) beat Jets 35-9
  • Seahawks (-1) beat 49ers 37-27
  • Eagles (-10) beat Cowboys 23-9

The Chiefs and Seahawks both cashed as chalk plays for the public. Sharps got it wrong with both the Jets (+ 21 to + 19.5) and 49ers (+ 4 to + 1).

The public struggled with sides but cleaned up with totals, as overs went 8-4 overall. In many instances, we saw totals drop precipitously due to windy weather conditions and then sail over their deflated closing numbers.

Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for MNF tonight.

8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

This Monday Night Football matchup looks incredibly lopsided on paper. The Bucs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won two in a row and just crushed the Raiders 45-20, easily covering as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night, although they managed to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tom Brady and the Bucs listed as a 10-point road favorite and now we're sitting at Bucs -12. The public is absolutely hammering the Bucs. But so were early pros, who targeted Tampa at -10 and -10.5. This line actually reached Bucs -12.5. That's when you saw some buyback on Eagles + 12.5, dropping it back down to 12.

The Giants look awful but have lots of value as a super contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Only about one-third of bets are grabbing the points in this primetime game. New York also enjoys a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday Night compared to the Bucs last playing on Sunday. Historically, Monday Night Football double-digit dogs are rare and have been a smart bet, covering at roughly a 70% clip over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 15-8 ATS (65%) this season.

We've seen some smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45. Weather could play a role in this one as the forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium. The Bucs are 4-3 to the over this season but the Giants are 5-2 to the under. Primetime unders are 17-6 (74%) this season.

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