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Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Bills-Patriots

December 27, 2020 12:12 PM

NFL favorites turned a profit on Sunday, going 6-4 ATS. However, three of the four dogs who covered also won outright. The Steelers-Colts game closed as a pick'em, with Pittsburgh coming from behind to win and cover 28-24. That game featured crazy line movement, with both teams reaching -2.5 at various points throughout the week thanks to conflicting sharp money.

Here are the six favorite covers yesterday

  • Bears (-9.5) beat Jaguars 41-17
  • Panthers (-1) beat Washington 20-13
  • Ravens (-9.5) beat Giants 27-13
  • Chargers (-2) beat Broncos 19-16
  • Seahawks (-1.5) beat Rams 20-9
  • Packers (-3) beat Titans 40-14

The public cleaned up with the Ravens, Bears and Chargers, who were all popular chalk plays receiving roughly two-thirds of bets or more. Sharps were all over the Rams (+ 2.5 to + 1.5) but got it completely wrong as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks rolled at home. Wiseguys also targeted the Titans (+ 4 to + 3) on Sunday Night Football and looked foolish as the Packers cruised in a snowstorm at Lambeau Field.

Here are the three dog outright winners

  • Jets (+ 6.5) beat Browns 23-16
  • Cowboys (+ 3) beat Eagles 37-17
  • Bengals (+ 7.5) beat Texans 37-31

The Jets, Cowboys and Bengals came up for contrarians as all three only received about one-third of spread bets. The Jets (+ 10 to + 6.5) saw massive line movement in their favor, due in large part to the Browns missing several offensive weapons due to COVID. New York won outright (+ 250 on the moneyline) and in doing so guaranteed the Jaguars will earn the first pick in the draft. The Cowboys (-2 to + 3) cashed as a buy-low unpopular home dog with an inflated line. The Bengals (+ 8.5 to + 7.5) received sharp reverse line movement and cashed + 275 on the moneyline.

The final dog to cover was the Falcons, who were super contrarian and received sharp movement + 11.5 to + 11. Atlanta hung tough with Kansas City and only lost 17-14.

Unders held a slight edge yesterday, going 6-5.

Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football and a loaded NBA and college basketball slate. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for tonight's MNF matchup.

8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

This Monday Night showdown features two AFC rivals in unfamiliar situations. The Bills (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have won four straight and are 7-1 over their last eight games. Last week Buffalo crushed Denver 48-19, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Bills are the 2-seed in the AFC and need to keep winning to fend off the Steelers, Titans, Browns and Colts. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) have lost two straight, including a 22-12 loss to the Dolphins last week, failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. New England has officially been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since Bill Belichick's first year in Foxborough in 2000. The Bills are + 67 in point different while the Patriots are -12.

This line opened with the Bills listed as 6.5-point road favorites (the early lookahead was Bills -4.5). The public, along with some early sharp money, have pounced on Buffalo, pushing this line up to -7. The Bills are a massively popular play tonight, receiving roughly three-out-of-four spread bets. The fact that this line hasn't inched up to -7.5 signals some reluctance by the books to hand out the hook (+ 7.5) to brave contrarian Pats backers. Essentially, we are witnessing a sharp line freeze at Pats + 7.

The Patriots have buy-low value as a home divisional dog (63% ATS this season), a primetime dog (60% ATS) and a December dog of a touchdown or more (5-3 ATS this season). New England will also be one of your top contrarian plays of the week as the public is absolutely hammering Bills Mafia.

The total has ticked up slightly from 45 to 46. The Bills are one of the best over teams this season (10-4) while the Pats have been great to the under (10-4). Primetime unders are 58% this season. This also matches a profitable late season divisional under system. The Patriots lost to the Bills 24-21 in Week 8 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs.

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