Monday Night Football best bets: Rams at 49ers

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

October 2, 2022 10:09 PM
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An NFC West matchup between the 2-1 Rams and 1-2 49ers caps off NFL Week 4.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. 

Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Sunday night.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Wes Reynolds: Betting against both national and social media narratives is not always the worst strategy in the NFL. Last week, the consensus thinking was, “Good thing the 49ers didn’t trade Jimmy G.” While that thinking is likely correct in the long term, it factors into the market on a week-to-week basis, as it did last Sunday night when the Niners became road favorites at Denver before losing 11-10. 

To be fair, those of us who had Denver caught some breaks, but the game still proved to be a tricky spot for San Francisco. The market overreacted to the Niners’ blowout of Seattle in Week 2 and to Jimmy Garoppolo being back in the saddle. Now the market appears to be overreacting again, this time fading the Niners after a shaky performance on SNF last week.

San Francisco is on a 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS run in its series with the Rams and has covered the last five, including a 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game in January. The Niners have also swept the Rams the last three regular seasons. Perhaps the market is betting the “due factor.” However, the Rams, while 2-1 this season, have only played one complete half of football (first half versus Atlanta). 

While much has been made of San Francisco’s poor offensive performance last week in Denver, including 1-for-10 on third down and two turnovers by Garoppolo, the Rams have had their own turnover issues, with Matthew Stafford throwing eight interceptions in his last five games dating to the NFC Championship Game. The loss of LT Trent Williams is a big one for San Francisco, but the Rams are battling their share of OL injuries as well.

The market bought too high with San Francisco last week and now appears to be selling too low. 

Pick: 49ers -120 ML

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

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