Monday Night Football best bets: Raiders at Chiefs

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

October 10, 2022 07:08 AM
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An AFC West matchup between the 1-3 Raiders and the 3-1 Chiefs caps off NFL Week 5.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. 

Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Sunday night.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 51.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: Once one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries, the Raiders-Chiefs series has been pretty lopsided since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013. Under Reid, the Chiefs have owned the Raiders — winning 15 of 18 meetings the last nine seasons.

But this Monday night, I’m hoping the autumn wind can swing things in favor of the men in silver and black. After starting the season 0-3, the Raiders got a big win Sunday over the rival Broncos as 2.5-point favorites.

The spread in that game was interesting, because with home-field advantage being worth 1-1.5 points, the betting market was telling us that the Raiders are slightly better than the Broncos on a neutral field. If that’s the case, there’s no way the Raiders can be a touchdown underdog in Kansas City.

I know the Chiefs can be a juggernaut at times, but they were heavily bet against last week before throttling the Buccaneers. That has to mean something. Famous last words, but I’m going to fade the six-time defending AFC West champs and hope they have their eyes on next week’s monster matchup against the Bills.

Pick: Raiders + 7

Adam Burke: The only total in the 50s for Week 5 does have shootout potential, which opens up a lot of possibilities in the Anytime TD market. Davante Adams leads the NFL with 14 red-zone targets and he’s + 115 to get a touchdown, but I think there’s another player for the Raiders worthy of a look at a bigger price.

That player is Mack Hollins, who is tied for 17th with seven red-zone targets thus far. Hollins has played at least 87% of the snaps through four games this season and has played at least 96% of the snaps in the last two. He’s had 24 targets over the last three games, as teams are really keying in on Adams.

Las Vegas has 18 red-zone opportunities thus far, but only eight touchdowns, so you know that has been a point of emphasis in practice. They’ve moved the ball and scored on the highest rate of possessions in the NFL (50%), but you need touchdowns against the Chiefs and that means ramping up the creativity and looking for some second, third or fourth options. This is the DraftKings’ price, but shop around for the best line.

Pick: Mack Hollins Anytime TD (+ 260)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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