Monday NHL Sharp Report for Sens-Leafs, Panthers-Lightning, Preds-Stars and Jets-Oilers

February 14, 2021 11:53 PM

Today, a new week begins with 7 NBA games, 13 college basketball games and 10 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for tonight's loaded NHL slate...

7 p.m. ET: Ottawa Senators (3-12-1) at Toronto Maple Leafs (11-3-1)

This North Division matchup is the equivalent of David vs Goliath. The Senators are the worst team in the NHL, although they are coming off a 2-1 win over the Jets as + 180 dogs. On the flip side, the Leafs have the best record in the NHL but are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Canadiens as -140 favorites. This line opened with Toronto listed as a massive -280 favorite and we've seen the line jump up to -290 or even -300 at some shops. Toronto has value as a home favorite (80-38, 68% this season) and a favorite off a loss (54-18, 75%). Big favorites -200 or more are 19-5 (79%) and favorites off a loss vs an opponent off a win are 37-14 (73%). Also, favorites with a line move of 10-cents or more are 34-14 (71%). For those wary of laying a hefty moneyline price, the Leafs are -1.5 (-130) on the puck-line. The total is 6.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Sens 10-5-1 and the Leafs 8-6-1.

7 p.m. ET: Florida Panthers (8-2-2) at Tampa Bay Lightning (10-2-1)

The in-state Central Division rivals just split a two-game series in Florida and now the matchup shifts to Tampa Bay. The Lightning opened as a hefty -165 favorite and the line has quickly shot up to -170 or even -175. Tampa Bay has value as a home favorite (80-38, 68% this season) and a home favorite -150 or more (37-10, 79%). The Lightning are an NHL-best + 24 in goal differential while the Panthers are just + 2. Also, Tampa Bay is undefeated at home this season (6-0). We've also seen some over money come in. The total is 5.5 with heavy -125 juice to the over. The Lightning are 8-5 to the over this season. The Panthers are an even 6-6.

8:30 p.m. ET: Nashville Predators (6-9) at Dallas Stars (5-3-4)

This Central Division showdown features a pair of teams looking to rebound from losing skids. The Predators are just 2-6 over their last eight games while the Stars have dropped five games in a row. This line opened with Dallas listed as a -150 favorite and respected money has pushed the Stars up to -155 or -160 across the market. The Stars have value as a home favorite (80-38, 68% this season) and a favorite off a loss (54-18, 75%). When two teams facing off are both coming off losses, the favorites is 17-3 (85%). Also, home favorites of -150 or more are 37-10 (79%). The Stars are + 6 in goal differential while the Preds are -16. Dallas is 4-1-3 at home. Nashville is 1-5 on the road and 0-7 as a dog. We might also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 5.5 with heavy under juice (-125).

9 p.m. ET: Winnipeg Jets (8-5-1) at Edmonton Oilers (9-7)

These North Division foes have been trending in opposite directions recently. The Jets have lost two of their last three while the Oilers have won four straight. This line opened with Edmonton listed as a modest -125 home favorite. Respected money has hit the Oilers, driving this line up to -135. Edmonton has value as a home favorite (80-38, 68% this season) and favorite with a line move of 10-cents or more (34-14, 71%). The Oilers also enjoy a distinct rest advantage over the Jets, as Edmonton last played on Thursday while Winnipeg played on Saturday. Favorites in this "rested vs tired" spot are 12-5 (71%). The total is a high 6.5 with some under liability (-115).

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