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Monday NHL Sharp Report for Flames-Leafs, Stars-Panthers, Sabres-Isles and Ducks-Coyotes

February 21, 2021 11:51 PM

Today, a new week begins with 6 NBA games, 25 college basketball games and 8 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for tonight's loaded NHL slate...

7 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames (8-9-1) at Toronto Maple Leafs (14-3-2)

These North Division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Flames have dropped three straight and are just 4-6 over their last ten games. On the flip side, the Leafs have won three straight and are 7-1-2 over their last ten. This game opened with Toronto listed as a -150 home favorite and respected money has steamed the line up to -165. The Leafs have value as a home favorite -150 or more (47-18, 72% this season). Favorites with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 35-21 (62%). The Flames are 4-5-1 on the road and have a -7 goal differential. The Leafs are 8-2-1 at home and have a NHL-best + 21 goal differential. Calgary is just 1-4 as a dog and the Leafs are 13-5 as a favorite.

7 p.m. ET: Dallas Stars (5-3-4) at Florida Panthers (11-3-2)

Both of these Central Division foes are looking to bounce back from losses. The Stars have lost five straight games while the Panthers just fell to the Red Wings 2-1, snapping a three-game win streak. This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both teams listed at -110. But sharp money has sided with Florida, pushing the Panthers to a -120 home favorite. Florida has value as a home favorite (93-55, 63%) and a favorite off a loss (64-25, 72%). Also, when two teams facing off are both coming off a loss, which is the case in this game, the favorite is 20-4 (83%). Florida is 5-2-1 at home this season and 7-3 as a favorite. The Stars are 1-2-1 on the road and 0-4 as a dog. There seems to be some liability on the over in this game. The total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -125. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Stars 7-5 and the Panthers 9-7.

7 p.m. ET: Buffalo Sabres (5-7-2) at New York Islanders (8-6-3)

This East Division showdown features one team at the bottom of the standings and the other in the middle of the pack. The Sabres have the second lowest point total in the NHL, although Buffalo is coming off a 3-2 win over New Jersey their last time out. Meanwhile, the Islanders have lost two games in a row but are only five points behind the division leading Bruins in the East. This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and we've seen the line creep up to -160 or even -165 at some shops. The Isles have value as a home favorite -150 or more off a loss (18-4, 82%) and a favorite off a loss vs an opponent off a win (44-20, 69%). We could also be in for a lower-scoring game. The total is 5.5 with heavy -130 juice to the under. Both teams are profitable to the under, with the Sabres 8-6 and the Isles 12-5.

9 p.m. ET: Anaheim Ducks (6-9-3) are Arizona Coyotes (7-7-3)

Both of these West Division teams are riding losing streaks and looking to get back on track. The Ducks have lost three straight and are 3-6-1 over their last ten games. Similarly, the Coyotes have dropped two straight and are just 1-4 over their last five. This line opened with Arizona listed as a -150 home favorite and chalk support has driven the line up to -155 or -160. The Coyotes have value as a home favorite -150 or more off a loss (18-4, 82%). Also when two teams coming off a loss face off, the favorite is 20-4 (83%). The total is 5 with -125 juice to the over. The Ducks have been a big under team this season (12-5-1) while the Coyotes have been better to the over (10-6-1).

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