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Monday NCAA Title Game Sharp Report

April 5, 2021 03:13 AM

The Big Game is finally here. March Madness comes to an end tonight with the NCAA Tournament championship game between Baylor and Gonzaga. Monday's action also features 13 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 7 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for tonight's Championship game...

9:20 p.m. ET: Baylor vs Gonzaga

Bettors are in for a treat with this Title Game showdown as it features by far and away the two best teams in College Basketball this season. Baylor (27-2) is its first national title game since 1948. The Bears have beaten 16-seed Hartford 79-55, 9-seed Wisconsin 76-63, 5-seed Villanova 6251, 3-seed Arkansas 81-72 and 2-seed Houston 78-59. Baylor has been favored in every game of the NCAA Tournament and gone. 4-1 ATS. Now they face their stiffest test yet in Gonzaga (31-0), who is chasing immortality and looking to become the first undefeated champion since Bobby Knight and Indiana in 1975-76. The Zags have beaten 16-seed Norfolk State 98-55, 8-seed Oklahoma 87-71, 5-seed Creighton 83-65, 6-seed USC 85-66 and 11-seed UCLA 93-90. Gonzaga has gone 4-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, laying double-digit spreads in nearly every game. 

This line opened with Gonzaga listed as a 5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. After all, Baylor just dominated Houston while Gonzaga barely got by UCLA. We've seen Gonzaga fall from -5 to -4.5. Some books are even juicing up the Baylor + 4.5 to -115, signaling a possible further fall to 4. This signals respected money grabbing the points with Baylor. Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by four points, which provides actionable value on Baylor plus the hook. Short dogs + 5 or less are 13-8 ATS (62%) in the NCAA Tournament. Dogs in which the line stays the same or falls in their direction are 20-14 ATS (59%). Baylor also has value as a slow paced dog (25-21 ATS, 54%). Baylor is + 175 on the moneyline. Gonzaga is -200. 

The total opened at 160. At first glance, this looks like an easy over as Baylor averages 82.8 PPG and Gonzaga leads the nation with 91.6 PPG. However, despite a majority of bets taking the over, we've seen this line dip slightly to 159.5. Unders are 37-26 (59%) this NCAA Tournament. If the total is 140 or higher, the under is 17-10 (63%). If the total stays the same or falls, the under is 27-17 (61%). If the total is 150 or higher, the under is 6-2 (75%). The over is 3-2 in Baylor games this NCAA Tournament. The under is 3-2 in Gonzaga games. 

Here are the updated Most Outstanding Player odds at BetMGM

Timme -120

Suggs + 115

Mitchell + 400

Butler + 800

Ayayi + 1600

Kispert + 2000

Teague + 2000

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