Monday NBA Sharp Report


Today a new week begins with a trio of NBA playoff games, 11 MLB games and 6 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff action...


7:30 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers lead this series 1-0 after earning a 131-111 victory in Game 1, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia opened as a 6.5-point home favorite. Both pros and Joes seem to be laying the points with the 76ers, as we've seen Philadelphia tick up from -6.5 to -7.5. Playoff favorites are 10-4 ATS (71%) this postseason. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 8-3 ATS (73%) this postseason and 60-45 ATS (57%) over the past three postseasons. The Raptors will be missing several key players due to injury in this game, including Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young. Respected money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 220.5 to 217.5. Unders are 10-4 (71%) this postseason. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 7-2 (78%) this postseason. Leading 1-0, the 76ers are now -450 favorites to win the series at BetMGM. The Raptors are  333.


8:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks

The Jazz lead this series 1-0 after posting a 99-93 victory in the series opener, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Utah opened as a 5-point road favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we've seen the Jazz inch up from -5 to -5.5. This signals respected money laying the points with the Jazz. Utah has value as a playoff favorite (10-4 ATS, 71% this postseason) and a favorite with a line move in their favor (8-3 ATS, 73%). Once again, Dallas is expected to miss superstar guard Luka Doncic with a calf injury. Pros have also quietly hit this over. The total opened at an incredibly low 204 and has gotten steamed up to 205.5. Leading 1-0, the Jazz are now -750 favorites to win the series. The Mavs are  500 dogs. 


10 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

The Warriors the series 1-0 after securing a 123-107 win in Game 1, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Golden State opened as a 7-point home favorite. The public is back on the Warriors' train after their resounding series opening victory. However, despite lopsided support in favor of Golden State, this line hasn't budged off the opener of 7. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Nuggets, with pros grabbing the points with Denver and books reluctant to hand out a a better number to contrarian Nuggets bettors. We've also seen a slight line freeze to the under, with the total remaining as 224.5 despite roughly two-thirds of bets sweating the over. Some shops are also juicing up the under 224.5 to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 224. Leading 1-0, the Warriors are now -500 favorites to win the series. The Nuggets are  375 dogs. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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