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Monday NBA Sharp Report (6-14)

June 14, 2021 12:38 AM

Today a new week begins with another loaded betting menu including 13 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two NBA playoff games...

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The 76ers lead the series 2-1. After splitting the first two games in Philadelphia, the 76ers posted a dominant 127-111 win in Game 3, easily covering as 2-point road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be aligned on Philadelphia, as we've seen a heavy dose of bets and money push the 76ers up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even flirting with a rise to -3.5. Philadelphia matches several profitable playoff betting systems. Road favorites are an impressive 12-4 ATS (75%) this postseason. Short favorites -5 or less are 25-13 ATS (66%). Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor of at least a half point (like 76ers -2.5 to -3) are 24-14 ATS (63%). Favorites are 9-5 ATS (64%) so far in Round Two. We've also seen some pros lean on the over, as the total opened at 225 and has been bet up to 225.5. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 25-16 (61%) this postseason. The over is 2-1 this series. Leading the series 2-1, the 76ers are now a -700 favorite to advance to the next round (88% implied probability). The Hawks are + 500 dogs to come back and win the series. One injury to keep in mind here: the 76ers will be without Danny Green the rest of the series due to a calf strain.

10 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers

This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Jazz lead the series 2-1. After dropping the first two games in Utah, the Clippers bounced back with a big 132-106 win in Game 3, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. In tonight's pivotal Game 4, Los Angeles opened as a 4-point home favorite. The public is leaning towards the Clippers after their convincing win and pros seem to be in agreement, as Los Angeles has moved from -4 to -4.5. Some shops are inching toward -5. Essentially all liability has been on the side of Los Angeles. Short favorites -5 or less with a line move in their direction (at least a half point) are 14-7 ATS (67%) this postseason. Home favorites are 7-3 ATS (70%) in Round Two. Favorites are 40-23 ATS (65%) overall this postseason. The total opened at 223.5 and hasn't budged. The over is 2-1 this series. Two key Jazz injuries to keep an eye on in this one: Donovan Mitchell left Game 3 with an ankle injury but is expected to play and Mike Conley remains questionable with a hamstring injury. Leading the series 2-1, the Jazz are -190 favorites to punch their ticket to the next round. The Clippers are a + 155 dog to win the series. 

Updated odd to win the NBA Title

Nets + 250

Suns + 375

Jazz + 400

Bucks + 475

76ers + 600

Clippers + 750

Hawks + 10000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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