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Monday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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Today a new week of betting begins with 2 NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 11 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks lead the series 2-1 after securing a 103-101 win in Game 3, although Boston was able to cover as a 2.5-point road dog. In tonight's rematch, the Bucks opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Bucks -1.5 to -1. Some shops are even down to a pick'em. This signals sharp wiseguy money backing the Celtics plus the points, triggering a line move in favor of Boston. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 209.5 to 212. The under offers some inflated line value as this point. The under is 3-0 this series. Unders are 41-22 (65%) this postseason. Leading 2-1, the Bucks are -165 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are +135 dogs. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors lead the series 2-1 after posting a 142-112 blowout win in Game 3, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tonight's rematch opened with Golden State listed as a 9-point home favorite. The Grizzlies will be without star Ja Morant (knee injury), and as a result we've seen the Warriors rise from -9 to -10. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 22-10 ATS (69%) this postseason. Sharps have also hit the under, steaming the total down from 227 to 224.5. Unders that fall at least a half point are 23-10 (70%) this postseason. When the total is 223 or more, the under is 15-7 (68%). Leading 2-1, the Warriors are -1000 favorites to win the series. The Grizzlies are +650 dogs. 

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