Monday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

heat

Today a new week of betting begins with two NBA playoff games, 8 MLB games and 4 NHL playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET.

I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

This is Game 1 of the Easter Conference Semifinals. The 76ers edged the Raptors 4-2 in the first round while the Heat brushed aside the Hawks 4-1. This game opened with the Heat listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Following the news that Philadelphia star big man Joel Embiid would miss this game with an orbital fracture, we saw the Heat get steamed up to -7.5. Some shops got as high as -8 or -8.5 and then some 76ers buyback brought the line back down to 7.5. Favorites are 29-22 ATS (57%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 18-9 ATS (67%). We've also seen a slight wiseguy lean to the over, with the total rising from 208 to 208.5. The Heat are -350 favorites to win the series. The 76ers are +260. Embiid is hoping to return at some point later in the series. The Heat have several injuries of their own to monitor for this game. Kyle Lowry is out with a hamstring injury while Jimmy Butler is questionable with a knee injury. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Mavericks took down the Jazz 4-2 in the first round while the Suns beat the Pelicans 4-2. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. However, despite the deadlocked percentages we've seen the Suns fall from -6 to -5.5, signaling wiseguy money grabbing the points with road dog Dallas. Pros have also hit the over in this game, steaming the total up from 213 to 214.5. The Suns are -300 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +240 dogs. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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