Monday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

miami

Today a new week of betting begins with one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 12 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...

 

8:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat lead the series 2-1 after posting a 109-103 victory in Game 3, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Boston opened as a 7-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 7 to 6.5, signaling some respected money grabbing road dog Miami plus the points. 

Teams receiving line movement in their favor are 36-28 ATS (56%) this postseason. If they're also coming off a win, these teams improve to 21-14 ATS (60%). The Heat are 19-8 ATS (70%) as a dog this season. Boston is just 19-25 ATS (43%) as a home favorite, including 3-4 ATS this postseason.

The Celtics have performed well in this spot, though. Boston is 22-13 ATS (63%) off a loss this season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off a loss this postseason. Favorites are 45-36 ATS (56%) this postseason. Favorites of 5-points or more are 23-15 ATS (61%). Favorites are 55-26 (68%) straight up. 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 208.5 to 207.5. This line movement is somewhat surprising as the over is a perfect 3-0 this series. Unders are 51-30 (63%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 30-14 (68%). 

Tied 1-1, the Celtics and Heat are both a -110 pick'em to win the series. Both teams are also +325 to win the NBA Title. 

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