Monday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report (5-24)

May 24, 2021 01:50 AM

Today, a new week begins with 8 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 5 NHL Stanley Cup playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. For extensive Monday betting analysis and line move updates join Brady Kannon and myself from noon-2 p.m. ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be broadcasting LIVE from the South Point in Las Vegas. We'll also be joined by Will Hill along with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two NBA playoff games...

7:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round. The Bucks lead the series 1-0 after securing a 109-107 win in the series opener, although Milwaukee failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Bucks opened as 4-point home favorites. The public expects another tight game and is all over Miami plus the points. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the Bucks move from -4 to -4.5. This signals some sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on Milwaukee as a rare playoff contrarian favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the total. It opened at 221.5 and has been bet up to 222.5, indicating some over action. After winning the opener, the Bucks are now -400 favorites to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 320 underdogs.

10 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

This is Game 2 of the Western Conference first round. The Blazers are up 1-0 in the series after upsetting the Nuggets in the opener 123-109, cashing as 1-point road dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Nuggets opened as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen the Nuggets move from -1 to -1.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So this move signals some respected money backing the Nuggets to even up the series. Historically, buying low on home favorites off a blowout loss (10-points or more) has been a profitable bet (roughly 58% ATS the past decade). We've also seen some under money show up. The total opened at 228.5 and has fallen to 227.5. Some shops are even down to 227. Super high playoff totals of 225 or more have gone under 55% of the time over the past decade. After going up 1-0 in the series, the Blazers are now -350 to advance to the round. The Nuggets are + 260 dogs.

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