Monday NBA Finals Game 5 Sharp Report

curry

Today a new week of betting begins with Game 5 of the NBA Finals along with 10 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher from 12 to 2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

 
In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is leaning for tonight's NBA Finals showdown...
 
 
9 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
 
This is Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 2-2. The Warriors are coming off a 107-97 win in Game 4, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. Now the series shifts back to San Francisco. 
 
This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Currently 64% of bets and 78% of money at DraftKings is laying the points with the Warriors, signaling both "Pro and Joe" support for Golden State. This lopsided betting has pushed some shops to Warriors -4. Favorites are 52-39 ATS (57%) this postseason, including 62-29 (68%) straight up. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 29-18 ATS (62%). The Warriors are 32-19 ATS (62%) at home this season, including 8-3 ATS this postseason. 
 
Boston has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet primetime game, receiving only 36% of spread bets. The Celtics have also excelled in this spot in particular, going 25-13 ATS (66%) off a loss this season including a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS off a loss this postseason. Boston is 20-10 ATS (57%) as a dog this season, including 7-2 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics are 35-17 ATS (67%) on the road this season, including 9-2 ATS this postseason.
 
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 212. This is notable because nearly 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the line hasn't moved. This signals some line freeze liability on the under. Unders are 56-35 (62%) this postseason. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 48-25 (66%). 
 
Tied 2-2, the Warriors are -150 favorites to win the NBA Title. The Celtics are +125 dogs. Stephen Curry (-145) is the favorite to win Finals MVP, followed by Jayson Tatum (+185) and Jaylen Brown (+700). 
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