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Monday National Championship Game Sharp Report

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Today a new week of betting begins with the NCAA Championship Game in College Basketball plus 4 NHL games. The NBA is off today. For an extensive breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of March Madness tonight...

Best bets for UNC-Kansas

9:20 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs Kansas

Welcome to the National Championship game. North Carolina (29-9 SU, 21-16-1 ATS) enters as the underdog 8-seed, having just upset 2-seed Duke 81-77 in the Final Four as a 4.5-point dog. Prior to the Final Four, North Carolina took down 15-seed St. Peter's 69-49, covering as 8.5-point favorites, upset 4-seed UCLA 73-66 as 2.5-point dogs, shocked 1-seed Baylor 83-86 as 5.5-point dogs and crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63, easily covering as 4-point favorites. 

Meanwhile, Kansas (33-6 SU, 20-19 ATS) is the 1-seed and just throttled Villanova 81-65 in the Final Four, easily covering as 4-point favorites. Kansas has also beaten 10-seed Miami 76-50, covering as 5-point favorites, edged 4-seed Providence 66-61, failing to covering as 6.5-point favorites, outlasted 9-seed Creighton 79-72, failing to cover as 13-point favorites, and obliterated 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56, covering as 18.5-point favorites.

This line opened with Kansas listed as a 4-point favorite. According to BetMGM, the public is split down the middle with 51% of bets laying the points with Kansas and 49% grabbing the points with underdog North Carolina. This line rose to 4.5 early on, signaling some respected action on Kansas. But then we saw some sharp buyback on North Carolina plus the hook, dropping the line back down to 4. Essentially, we are looking at a line freeze. The next move will be critical. If the line falls to 3.5 on gameday, that will signal pro money breaking with North Carolina. If it rises to 4.5, that will indicate further Kansas support. North Carolina is currently 170 on the moneyline. Kansas is -200.

Ken Pom has Kansas winning by six points (80-74). He has Kansas ranked 3rd and North Carolina 16th. We've also seen some wiseguy under money come in. Currently 64% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell from 153.5 to 152, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the under. The quick turnaround from Saturday's Final Four might be a reason for the under steam, implying tired legs and front rimmed shots. Unders are 34-28 (55%) in March Madness. 

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