Monday MLB Sharp Report

mets

Today a new week of betting begins with 13 MLB games. Unfortunately we have no playoff NBA or NHL to get down on today, with both leagues taking a brief hiatus. 

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a handful of MLB games receiving wiseguy action today...

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (12-24) at Miami Marlins (15-19)

Both of these NL East rivals are looking to bounce back from series losses. The Nats just dropped two of three against the Astros while the Marlins just lost two of three against the Brewers. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to righty Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 7.58 ERA) and Miami counters with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 2.74 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -155 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Pros have hammered the Fish, steaming Miami up from -155 to -205. Home favorites of -200 or more are 49-21 (70%) this season. Miami also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Marlins are +10 in run differential. The Nats are -36. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. Unders are 270-227 (54%) this season. 

 

7:10 p.m ET: St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) at New York Mets (23-13)

The Cardinals just took two of three against the Giants, crushing San Francisco 15-6 on Sunday as +125 road dogs. On the flip side, the Mets just dropped two of three against Seattle, losing 8-7 as -140 favorites yesterday. In tonight's series opener, the Cardinals send out righty Miles Mikolas (3-1, 1.49 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with fellow righty Trevor Williams (0-2, 5.73 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -115 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. However, we've seen the Mets tick up from -115 to -120, signaling pro money laying the short chalk with New York at home. The Mets are 19-7 against righties this season. New York is also 19-10 as a favorite and 10-7 at home. Sharps have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (23-12) at Boston Red Sox (13-21)

The Astros just took two of three against the Nats, winning 8-0 on Sunday as -200 road favorites. Similarly, the Red Sox just took two of three against the Rangers, although Boston dropped Sunday's series finale 7-1 as +100 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, Houston taps veteran righty Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38 ERA) and Boston starts young righty Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 2.19 ERA). Thus line opened with Boston listed as a short -120 home favorite and Houston a +110 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're grabbing the plus money with the better team, dropping Houston from +110 to +105. Houston has value as a dog in a high total game (8.5). The Astros are +40 in run differential. The Red Sox are -12. Boston is just 4-9 at home. Houston is 14-8 on the road. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. The forecast calls for high 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. 

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