Monday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben Wilson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss several MLB games receiving sharp action today...


1:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (29-35) at New York Mets (44-24)

The Mets lead this NL East series 2-1. New York won the opener 10-4 as -145 home favorites and then won again on Saturday 3-2 as -180 home favorites. Miami bounced back on Sunday with a 6-2 win, cashing as +125 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, the Marlins hand the ball to lefty Trevor Rogers (3-5, 5.87 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow southpaw David Peterson (3-1, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -145 home favorite and Miami a  130 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Mets, steaming New York up from -145 to -165. The Mets have value as a favorite in a low total game (8). New York is 33-14 as a favorite, 23-10 at home and 14-10 against leftys. The Marlins are 12-24 as a dog, 14-21 on the road and 8-6 against leftys. New York's biggest advantage comes at the plate, where the Mets are hitting .261 compared to the Marlins' .242. 


7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (49-17) at Tampa Bay Rays (36-20)

The Yankees just took two of three at the Jays, although New York lost 10-9 as -160 favorites on Sunday to snap their 9-game win streak. On the flip side, the struggling Rays just lost two of three at the Orioles, dropping to just 2-7 over their last nine games. In tonight's AL East series opener, New York hands the ball to ace righty Gerrit Cole (6-1, 3.33 ERA) and Tampa Bays sends out ace lefty Shane McClanahan (7-3, 1.84 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Rays a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on the rare opportunity to get the best team in baseball at such a short chalk price, steaming the Yankees up from -120 to -130. Road favorites are 233-140 (63%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season are 132-66 (67%). New York is 45-16 as a favorite, 20-10 on the road and 15-6 against leftys. The Yankees are hitting .249 while the Rays sit at .233. New York is 5-2 against Tampa Bay this season. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (26-40) at Boston Red Sox (36-31)

The Tigers just split a four-game series with the Rangers at home, winning the final two games on Saturday and Sunday to snap a six-game losing skid. Meanwhile, the Red Sox just took two of three at home against the Cardinals to improve to 13-4 over their last 17 games. In tonight's series opener, Detroit hands the ball to righty Alex Faedo (1-3, 4.28 ERA) and Boston rebuttals with fellow righty Josh Winckowski (1-1, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -165 home favorite and the Tigers a +150 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have pounded Boston from -165 to -180. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 271-147 (65%) this season. Boston is 22-14 as a favorite and 17-16 at home. Detroit is 19-31 as a dog and 8-18 on the road. The Red Sox are hitting .258 while the Tigers are hitting only .224. 

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A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

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Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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