Monday MLB Sharp Report

scherzer

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to check out the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action tonight...

 

7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (64-37) at Washington Nationals (35-68)

These NL East foes are opposite ends of the division standings, with the first place Mets leading the last place Nationals by 30 games. In tonight's series opener, New York hands the ball to ace righty Max Scherzer (6-2, 2.09 ERA) and Washington counters with lefty Patrick Corbin (4-14, 6.49 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a hefty -230 road favorite and the Nats a +210 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've taken one look at the pitching matchup and have steamed the Mets up from -230 to -240. Road favorites are 340-220 (61%) this season. The Mets have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (8). New York leads the season series 8-2. Scherzer posted a 1.39 ERA in five July starts. Corbin posted a 7.99 ERA in five July starts. The Mets hold a distinct advantage at the plate (.256 batting average to .246) and on the mound (3.54 ERA vs 5.14).

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (55-48) at New York Yankees (69-34)

The Mariners just dropped three of four on the road at the Astros. Meanwhile, the Yankees just took three of four from the Royals at home. In tonight's series opener, Seattle starts lefty Marco Gonzales (6-10, 3.66 ERA) and New York sends out righty Domingo German (0-1, 8.22 ERA). This line opened with New York listed ads a -160 home favorite and Seattle a +145 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Yankees, steaming New York up from -160 to -175. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 393-223 (64%) this season. The Yankees are 65-30 as a favorite, 40-13 at home and 22-8 against lefties. Gonzales has a 4.60 ERA in five July starts. The Yankees hold the edge at the plate, hitting .245 vs .233 for Seattle.

 

9:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (68-33) at San Francisco Giants (51-51)

Both of these NL West rivals are coming off series victories. The Dodgers just took three of our at the Rockies while the Giants took three of four at home against the Cubs. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles turns to lefty Andrew Heaney (1-0, 0.47 ERA) and San Francisco starts righty Logan Webb (9-4, 2.91 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a modest -120 road favorite and the Giants a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on laying the short chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -120 to -135. The Dodgers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). When the total is 8 or less, road favorites are 146-81 (64%) this season. Los Angeles is 67-32 as a favorite, 46-21 against righties and 33-18 at home. The Dodgers will lean on their offensive advantage, hitting .258 compared to .235 for the Giants. Los Angeles leads the season series 6-3. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Jason Weingarten: Rams +6 vs. Raiders. View more picks

Josh Appelbaum: Army/Navy Under 33 (-110). View more picks

 

 

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