Monday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...

7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (41-43) at Cleveland Guardians (41-42)
These AL Central rivals are trending in opposite directions. The White Sox just split a four-game series at home with the Tigers to move to 6-4 over their last ten games. On the flip side, the Guardians just dropped two of three at the Royals to fall to just 2-8 over their last ten games. In tonight's series opener, Chicago taps righty Lance Lynn (1-1, 5.33 ERA) and Cleveland sends out fellow righty Cal Quantrill (4-5, 3.86 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides roughly -105. Pros have sided with the White Sox, steaming Chicago up to a -115 road favorite. Favorites who made the playoffs last year against teams who did not are 334-182 (65%) this season. The White Sox are 25-22 as a favorite. The Guardians are 16-26 as a dog. Chicago has the edge at the plate, hitting .255 compared to .246 for Cleveland. The White Sox are 4-1 in Lynn's five starts. The Guardians are 6-9 in Quantrill's 15 starts. 
7:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets (53-33) at Atlanta Braves (52-35)
This NL East series is huge for both clubs as the Braves trail the first place Mets by just 1.5 games. New York just split a two-game series at home with the Marlins while Atlanta just swept the Nationals at home. In tonight's series opener, the Mets hand the ball ace righty Max Scherzer (5-,1, 2.26 ERA) and the Braves counter with lefty Max Fried (9-2, 2.52 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short -120 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog. Pros have jumped on the chance to grab Scherzer at plus money, dropping the Mets from +110 to +105. New York has value as a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Scherzer is making his second start since returning from the IL. He went 6 innings, giving up no runs and striking out 11 in a 1-0 loss to the Reds. We've also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 7.5 to 7. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. The under is 8-1 in the last nine Braves games. 
8:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (49-38) at Colorado Rockies (38-48)
The Padres just split a four-game set at home with the Giants. Meanwhile, the Rockies just took three out of four on the road at the Diamondbacks. In tonight's series opener, San Diego starts lefty Sean Manaea (3-4, 4.18 ERA) and Colorado taps righty Jose Urena (0-0, 2.51 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -130 road favorite and the Rockies a +120 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -130 to -145. Road favorites are 282-185 (60%) this season. San Diego is 31-24 as a favorite. Colorado is 26-40 as a dog. The Padres have a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.64 compared to 4.96 for the Rockies. San Diego is +38 in run differential. Colorado is -78. 
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