Monday MLB Sharp Report

September 4, 2022 11:57 PM
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Happy Labor Day! I'm back from my Cape Cod vacation and excited to get back to work. For an in-depth breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining VSiN Primetime at 8:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action on Monday...

 

12:35 p.m. ET: New York Mets (85-50) at Pittsburgh Pirates (49-84)

Both of these NL non-division foes are looking to bounce back from series losses. The Mets just dropped two of three at home to the Nationals while the Pirates just got swept at home by the Blue Jays. In this early afternoon series opener, New York turns to righty Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.45 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (4-10, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -195 road favorite and the Pirates a +180 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk. They're laying the juice with the far better team, steaming the Mets up from -195 to -205. Non-division road favorites are 248-160 (61%) this season. Non-division road favorites -200 or more are 44-16 (73%). The Mets hold a big edge at both the plate (hitting .256 vs .219) and on the mound (team ERA 3.52 vs 4.67). New York is 66-31 as a favorite, 39-27 on the road and 58-30 against righties. Pittsburgh is 39-75 as a dog, 26-39 at home and 32-54 against righties. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 8. The under is 5-0 in the last five Pirates games. The under is 8-4 in the last 12 Mets games. 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (68-64) at Kansas City Royals (55-80)

These AL Central rivals are at opposite ends of the division standings. The Guardians are tied for first with the Twins while the Royals sit 14.5 games back. Cleveland is riding a five-game losing skid and just got swept at home by the Mariners. Meanwhile, the Royals just took two of three on the road at the Tigers. In tonight's series opener, Cleveland starts righty Triston McKenzie (9-11, 3.18 ERA) and Kansas City taps fellow righty Brady Singer (7-4, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -120 road favorite and the Royals a +110 home dog. Pros are banking on the Guardians to snap their losing streak, steaming Cleveland up from -120 to -130. Road favorites off a loss are 194-129 (60%) this season. The Guardians also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). Both teams are hitting roughly .247. The difference comes on the mound, with Cleveland sporting a team ERA of 3.65 compared to 4.73 for Kansas City. The Guardians are 36-24 as a favorite. The Royals are 42-68 as a dog. The Guardians lead the season series 6-4. 

 

9:38 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (51-83) at Los Angeles Angels (58-76)

The Tigers are 1-5 in their last six games and just dropped two of three at home to the Royals. Detroit owns the fourth worst record in MLB. Meanwhile, the Angels are 6-3 over their last nine games but just dropped two of three on the road at the Astros. Los Angeles is 16 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. In tonight's series opener, the Tigers tap lefty Tyler Alexander (3-8, 4.76 ERA) and the Angels trot out fellow southpaw Jose Suarez (5-6, 4.10 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -175 home favorite and Detroit a +160 road dog. We've seen the Angels bump up from -175 to -180, signaling pro money laying the chalk with Los Angeles at home. Monday home favorites off a loss, like the Angels here, are 37-17 (69%) this season. The Angels are 36-31 as a favorite. Detroit is 41-70 as a dog and just 21-43 on the road, tied with the Rockies for the worst road record in MLB. Alexander has a 5.58 ERA in six August starts. The Tigers are 1-8 in Alexander's last nine starts. Suarez has a 2.51 ERA in five August starts. 

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