Monday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth analysis of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action from respected bettors today...

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (63-51) at Cincinnati Reds (45-68)

The Phillies have their eyes on the postseason and currently occupy the third and final Wild Card spot in the NL. Philadelphia, however, just dropped two of three at the Mets, culminating in a 6-0 loss on Sunday as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Reds are well out of playoff contention and own the 5th-worst record in baseball. Cincinnati just lost two of three at home against the Cubs, although the Reds did post an 8-5 win yesterday, cashing as +135 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia hands the ball to righty trade deadline acquisition Noah Syndergaard (6-8, 3.96 ERA) and Cincinnati starts veteran lefty Mike Minor (1-9, 6.24 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -175 road favorite and the Reds a +160 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the Phils, who are 13-4 over their last 17 games, steaming Philadelphia up from -175 to -185. Non-division road favorites off a loss are 90-55 (62%) this season. The Phillies hold the edge at the plate (hitting .249 vs .240) and on the mound (ERA 3.73 vs 5.04). Philadelphia is 2-0 in Syndergaard's first two starts with the team. The Reds are 0-9 in Minor's last nine starts.

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (79-34) at Milwaukee Brewers (61-52)

The Dodgers just took two of three at the Royals but saw their 12-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday, losing 4-0 as -215 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers just dropped two of three at the Cardinals. Milwaukee fell 6-3 yesterday, failing to take care of business as -145 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Julio Urias (12-6, 2.49 ERA) and Milwaukee counters with righty Freddy Peralta (4-2, 4.37 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -160 road favorite and the Brewers a +145 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -160 to -170. Non-division road favorites are 199-129 (61%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 225-123 (65%). Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Dodgers will lean on their bats, hitting .261 compared to .239 for the Brewers. Los Angeles is 78-33 as a favorite, 39-19 on the road and 54-22 against righties. The Dodgers are 10-0 in Urias' last ten starts. 

 

9:38 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (62-54) at Los Angeles Angels (51-64) 

These AL West rivals are at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. Seattle currently occupies the second Wild Card spot while Los Angeles is 10-games back of the third and final Wild Card spot. The Mariners just dropped two of three on the road at Rangers, falling 5-3 on Sunday as -125 road favorites. On the flip side, the Angels just took two of three at home agains the Twins, winning 4-2 on Sunday as +125 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Mariners start righty trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo (5-4, 2.71 ERA) and the Angels counter with two-way righty star Shohei Ohtani (10-7, 2.68 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 home favorite and Seattle a +130 road dog. Sharps have absolutely pounded the Mariners getting plus money, causing massive steam in the Mariners' favor (+130 to -110). Essentially we are seeing huge dog to favorite line movement toward Seattle. The Mariners are 31-15 as a favorite and 51-37 against righties. The Angels are 14-34 as a dog and 35-47 against righties. In his career, Ohtani is 26-13 as a favorite (67%) but just 4-11 (27%) as a dog. 

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