Monday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I am heading to the DraftKings studio in Boston today to record some Betting Education videos, so unfortunately I will miss Betting Across America. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (52-69) at Tampa Bay Rays (65-55)

These AL non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Angels just dropped two of three on the road at the Tigers to fall to 1-5 over their last six games. On the flip side, the Rays just took three of four at home agains the Royals to move to 7-2 over their last nine games. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Tucker Davidson (2-3, 6.75 ERA) and Tampa Bay counters with fellow southpaw Jeffrey Springs (5-3, 2.52 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -185 home favorite and the Angels a +170 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better and hotter team at home, steaming the Rays up from -185 to -200. Home favorites -200 or more are 208-84 (71%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year against teams who missed the playoffs are 461-262 (64%). Tampa Bay also has correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Rays are 47-31 as a favorite and 38-23 at home. Los Angeles is 14-37 as a dog and just 26-33 on the road. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (55-66) at Minnesota Twins (62-57)

This is the fourth and final games of a four-game set. Minnesota took the series opener 2-1, cashing as -130 home favorites. But then the Rangers bounced back with a pair of wins in the last two, winning 4-3 on Saturday as +150 road dogs and then winning again on Sunday 7-0 as +155 road dogs. In tonight's series finale, Texas taps lefty Cole Ragans (0-2, 5.02 ERA) and Minnesota starts veteran righty Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.11 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -190 home favorite and the Rangers a +175 road dog. Sharps are banking on the Twins to earn the split, steaming Minnesota up from -190 to -205. Monday home favorites off a loss are 35-15 (70%) this season. The Twins are 44-27 as a favorite, 35-27 at home and 21-16 against lefties. The Rangers are 34-37 as a dog, 28-32 on the road and 34-49 against righties. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible fall down 8. The under is 6-1 in Minnesota's last seven games and 5-2 in the Rangers' last seven games. 

 

8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (69-51) at Chicago Cubs (52-68)

Both of these NL Central rivals are playing well as of late. The Cardinals just swept the Diamondbacks on the road and are now 16-2 over their last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Cubs just took two of three at home agains the Brewers to improve to 8-3 over their last 11 games. In tonight's series opener, St. Louis turns to lefty Jordan Montgomery (6-3, 3.29 ERA) and Chicago starts fellow southpaw Drew Smyly (5-6, 3.67 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -150 road favorite and the Cubs a +135 home dog. Sharps have pounced on red-hot St. Louis, steaming the Cardinals up from -150 to -165. Road favorites are 405-275 (60%) this season. St. Louis has an edge both at the plate (hitting .258 vs .243) and on the mound (team ERA 3.82 vs 4.22). Montgomery has given up just one earned run over three starts with St. Louis, leading the Cardinals to a 3-0 record. St. Louis is 19-9 against lefties this season. Chicago is 14-20. The Cardinals lead the season series 7-4 over the Cubs.

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