Monday MLB Sharp Report (8-9)

August 9, 2021 12:49 AM

Today, a new week begins with five MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a pair of MLB games today...

8:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (61-50) at Kansas City Royals (48-62)

The Yankees have been one of the hottest teams in MLB since the All-Star Break. New York is now 10-3 over their last 13 games. New York trails first-place Tampa Bay by 6.5-game in the AL East. If you think the Yankees can catch the Rays, New York is + 600 to win the division. On the flip side, the Royals are 17-games back of the White Sox in the AL Central with no realistic shot at the postseason. In tonight's series opener, the Yankees start righty Jameson Taillon (7-4, 4.04 ERA) and the Royals rebuttal with fellow righty Carlos Hernandez (3-1, 4.58 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -170 road favorite and Kansas City a + 155 home dog. The public is hammering the Yankees, yet the line has remained frozen at -170 or even dipped to -165 at some shops. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog. The Royals have value as a dog with a high total (9.5). The more expected runs scored, the more variance and upset opportunities. Home dogs are 262-321 (44.9%) this season, winning roughly + 12 units due to the plus money payouts. The Yankees are dealing with COVID- protocols and might miss Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez. We could be looking at a higher scoring game. The total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115. The forecast calls for hot low 90s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center. The weather provides ideal conditions for the over. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (47-65) at San Diego Padres (64-49)

These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Marlins are 3-7 in their last ten games and just got swept by the Rockies. Meanwhile, the Padres just took two of three from the Diamondbacks and are 4-2 in their last six games. In tonight's series opener, Miami hands the ball to righty Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.53 ERA) and San Diego counters with fellow righty Joe Musgrove (7-7, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a hefty -220 home favorite and the Marlins a + 200 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk price. They've steamed San Diego up from -220 to -230. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 220-137 (61.6%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more off a win are 91-36 (71.7%). San Diego also has value as a big favorite with a low total (7.5). Low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Padres are 56-35 as a favorite, including 36-19 (65.5%) as a home favorite. The Marlins are 29-48 as a dog. San Diego is 38-23 at home. The Marlins are 20-38 on the road. The Padres will lean on their bats. San Diego is hitting .247, which ranks 9th-best in MLB. The Marlins are hitting .236, which ranks 20th. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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