Greetings from Chatham, Mass.! I am on vacation this week spending time with my fiance and family on Cape Cod. Unfortunately, there is no VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. But I will still check in all week to report a handful of games receiving sharp action across the market.
Let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight.
7:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (75-57) at Tampa Bay Rays (82-48)
This three-game series is crucial for both teams, as the Rays lead the AL East by six games over the Yankees and eight games over the Red Sox. In tonight's series opener, the Red Sox start righty Nick Pivetta (9-6, 4.57 ERA) and the Rays send out fellow righty Luis Patino (3-3, 4.53 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and Boston a + 115 road dog. Respected money is laying the chalk with the red-hot Rays, who have won seven straight games. Pros steamed Tampa Bay up from -125 to -135. Home favorites off a win are 439-284 (60.7%) this season. The Rays are 35-14 (71.4%) as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 7-5 against Boston this season, including 5-1 at home. We could be looking at a higher scoring game. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise to 9. The over is 7-3 in the last ten matchups between these teams. The Rays are 72-53 to the over this season.
9:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (79-52) at San Francisco Giants (84-46)
This non-division showdown features two of the top three teams in the NL going head-to-head. The Brewers sit comfortably in first place in the NL Central, leading the second place Reds by 8.5-games. Meanwhile, the first place Giants lead the NL West by 2.5-games over the second place Dodgers. In tonight's series opener, Milwaukee gives the ball to ace righty Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.30 ERA) and San Francisco starts fellow righty Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.73 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as -130 road favorites and the Giants a + 120 home dog. The public is split down the middle. They see two great teams facing off and don't know who to take. But pros seem to be leaning with the Brewers, as we've seen Milwaukee creep up from -130 to -140. Short road favorites -150 or more off a win are 147-95 (60.7%) this season. When two great teams square off (both win percentages of .550 or more), the favorite is 25-15 (62%). Milwaukee also has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). The fewer amount of runs scored, the more likely they come from the better team. Runs could be at a premium in this one. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115, indicating a possible fall down to 7.
10:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (70-59) at Los Angeles Dodgers (82-49)
If the postseason started today, both of these non-division opponents would be in. The Braves sit in first place in the NL East, leading the second place Phillies by 4.5-games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers occupy the first Wild Card spot and only trailing the first place Giants by 2.5-games in the NL West. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta hands the ball to lefty Drew Smyly (9-3, 4.54) and Los Angeles counters with fellow southpaw Julio Urias (14-3, 3.17 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -180 home favorite and the Braves a + 165 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves in this one. They're backing the better team at home with the starting pitcher advantage, steaming Los Angeles up from -180 to -190. Non-division home favorites are 423-265 (61.5%) this season, winning roughly + 13 units. The Dodgers are 82-46 as a favorite and 43-23 at home. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall to 8.5.
Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.