Monday MLB Sharp Report (8-2)

August 2, 2021 01:34 AM

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today.

3:07 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (51-51) at Toronto Blue Jays (54-48)

These teams are trending in opposite directions as of late. The Indians just dropped two of three to the White Sox and are now 6-9 in the second half. Meanwhile, the Jays just swept the Royals and are now 9-6 post All-Star break. In this late afternoon series opener, Cleveland starts righty Eli Morgan (1-3, 7.47 ERA) and Toronto trots out with lefty Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a hefty -260 home favorite and Cleveland a + 230 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by this big chalk number and have steamed Toronto up from -260 to -280. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more off a win are 172-121 (58.7%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more off a win are 79-30 (72.5%). Home favorites -200 or more are 98-40 (71%). Toronto is 32-25 as a favorite. The Indians are 23-32 as a dog. The Jays will lean on their bats in this one. Toronto is hitting .265, which ranks 2nd in MLB. The Indians are hitting .230, which ranks 26th. Respected money also appears to be leaning under, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a further possible from to 9. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (52-53) at Washington Nationals (49-56)

These NL East opponents are both within striking distance of the first place Mets. The Phillies are 3.5-games back of New York and the Nats are 6.5-games back. The Phillies are just 2-4 over their last six games and just dropped two of three to the lowly Pirates. On the flip side, the Nats traded away much of their veteran talent on the trade deadline, although they just took two of three against the Cubs. In tonight's series opener, the Phillies send out Ranger Suarez (5-3, 1.12 ERA) and the Nats counter with rookie Josiah Gray (0-0, 6.75 ERA), who was recently acquired from the Dodgers at the deadline. This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -115 road favorite and the Nats a + 105 home dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Phillies, driving Philadelphia up from -115 to -125. The Phillies have value as a short road favorite -150 or less off a win (119-85, 58.3% this season). Road favorites off a win of 5 runs or more have gone 64-33 (66%). We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from center. The Nats are one of the best under teams this season, going 62-40-3 to the under. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (40-65) at Milwaukee Brewers (63-43)

These NL Central opponents are at opposite ends of the division standings. The Brewers sit in first place while the Pirates are 22.5-games back in last place. In tonight's series opener, the Pirates start righty Bryse Wilson (2-3, 4.83 ERA) and the Brewers hand the ball to lefty Eic Lauer (3-4, 3.78 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -190 home favorite and Pittsburgh a + 175 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the far superior team at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -190 to -210. Big home favorites -200 or more off a win are 81-30 (73%) this season. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more off a win are 172-121 (58.7%). Home favorites are 608-402 (60.2%). Pittsburgh is just 7-19 against lefties. The Brewers are 52-32 against righties. Milwaukee is 45-32 as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 35-61 as a dog. The Brewers are 29-24 at home. The Pirates are 17-35 on the road. Milwaukee is + 88 in run differential. The Pirates are -150. Milwaukee is 10-3 against Pittsburgh this year. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8.5. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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