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Monday MLB Sharp Report (8-16)

August 16, 2021 02:45 AM

Today, a new week begins with 10 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today...

7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (62-56) at Miami Marlins (51-67)

This NL East showdown features a pair of clubs playing good baseball as of late. The Braves just swept the Nationals and are now in first place in the division. Atlanta is 10-2 over their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit in last place in the division but have won four games in a row and just swept the Cubs. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta hands the ball to righty Touki Toussaint (1-2, 4.28 ERA) and Miami counters with lefty Braxton Garrett (1-1, 4.65 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -135 road favorite and the Marlins a + 125 home dog. Wiseguys are pounding the red-hot Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -145. Short road favorites -150 or less coming off a win are 133-92 (59.1%) this season. The Braves are 42-36 as a favorite. The Marlins are 30-50 as a dog. Atlanta is 18-12 against lefties. Miami is 38-43 against righties. The Braves are + 72 in run differential. The Marlins are -9. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (57-59) at Minnesota Twins (52-66)

Both of these AL Central opponents have struggled this season and are currently 10+  games back in both their division and the Wild Card. The Indians just took two of three at the Tigers while the Twins just took two of three at home against the Rays. In tonight's series opener, Cleveland taps righty Cal Quantrill (3-2, 3.13 ERA) and Minnesota sends out fellow righty Griffin Jax (3-1, 5.45 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a short -128 home favorite and Cleveland a + 118 road dog. Wiseguys see value in the plus-money Indians, who have a better record and starting pitcher advantage, steaming Cleveland from + 118 to + 107. The Indians have value as a divisional dog with a high total. Pros are also leaning on a lower-scoring game. The total opened at 10 and has quickly fallen to 9.5 behind some sharp under money. The forecast calls for low 80s with 10-12 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 

9:45 p.m. ET: New York Mets (59-58) at San Francisco Giants (76-42)

This is a crucial series for both clubs. The Mets have fallen to 2.5-games back of the first place Braves in the NL after just getting swept at home by the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Giants have the best record in baseball but must keep winning because the Dodgers are on their heels, trailing by just 4-games in the NL West. In tonight's series opener, the Mets start veteran lefty Rich Hill (6-4, 4.05 ERA) and the Giants trot out righty Kevin Gausman (11-5, 2.29 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -170 home favorite and New York a + 160 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the chalk and are backing the Giants with their ace on the mound, steaming up San Francisco from -170 to -180. Non-division home favorites are 375-237 (61.3%) this season. The Mets are 23-35 on the road. The Giants are 40-18 at home, the best home record in baseball. San Francisco is 48-23 as a favorite. New York is 18-28 as a dog. The Giants will lean on their bats in this one. San Francisco is hitting .246, which ranks 10th best in MLB. The Mets are hitting .235, which ranks 25th. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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