Monday MLB Sharp Report (7-5)

July 4, 2021 11:26 PM

Today, a new week begins with another loaded betting menu, headlined by 11 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight.

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (41-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (30-53)

These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Braves just took two of three from the Marlins and are now 4-1 over their past five games. Meanwhile, the Pirates just dropped three of four to the Brewers to fall to 1-6 over their last seven games. The Braves send out lefty Max Fried (5-4, 4.16 ERA) and the Pirates counter with righty Chase De Jong (0-3, 5.65 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -170 road favorite and Pittsburgh a + 155 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by this chalk number and have steamed the Braves up from -170 to -185. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more have gone 174-94 (65%) this season. The Pirates are just 5-14 against lefties this season. Atlanta is + 16 in run differential this season. Pittsburgh is -116. We could be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115.

7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (42-39) at Tampa Bay Rays (48-36)

Both of these American League contenders have struggled as of late. The Indians have lost six straight while the Rays are just 1-5 over their past six games. In tonight's series opener the Indians give the ball to lefty Logan Allen (1-5, 8.38 ERA) and the Rays start fellow southpaw Rich Hill (6-3, 3.70 ERA). Tampa Bay opened as a -190 home favorite and Cleveland a + 175 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take, yet we've seen the Rays move from -190 to -200. This signals some wiseguy action backing Tampa at home. Non-division home favorites are 287-167 (63%) this season. The Rays are 18-9 (67%) as home favorites. Home favorites -200 or more are 76-28 (73%). Cleveland is 15-17 against lefties this season. Tampa Bay is 18-15 against lefties. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. This signals a possible rise to 9. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season. Cleveland is 45-33-3 to the over. Tampa Bay is 46-35-3 to the over.

8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (43-40) at Kansas City Royals (35-48)

These Interleague foes are going in opposite directions lately. The Reds have won four straight while the Royals are just 2-10 over their last twelve games. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Vladimir Gutierrez (3-3, 4.93 ERA) and Kansas City taps veteran lefty Mike Minor (6-6, 5.33 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Reds a + 105 road dog. The public sees an easy with the Reds, who have a better record and are getting plus money. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Kansas City inch up from -115 to -120. This signals some sharp "fade the trendy dog" action on the Royals, with pros buying low on the home favorite. Interleague favorites with a line move in their favor are 50-32 (61%) this season. The Royals are 16-11 as a favorite. The Reds are 16-20 as a dog.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

back to news


Ask VSiN Your Sports Betting Questions

Spell Check


View All

Google Play
App Store