Monday MLB Sharp Report (7-19)

July 19, 2021 12:58 AM

A new week begins with 13 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight...

5:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (39-53) at Chicago White Sox (56-36)

This is Game 1 of a doubleheader. It is a makeup game from June 28. Minnesota hands the ball to Griffin Jax (1-1, 8.66 ERA) and Chicago counters with veteran ace Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.99 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a hefty -195 home favorite and the Twins a + 180 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've rushed to the window to back the better team with the starting pitcher advantage, steaming the White Sox up from -195 to -210. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 70-26 (73%) this season. Home favorites off a win are 317-198 (62%). The White Sox are 31-12 (72%) as home favorites. Chicago has owned Minnesota this season, going 10-2, including 6-0 at home. The Twins are 17-28 on the road. The White Sox are 33-15 at home. Chicago is 50-21 as a favorite. Minnesota is 12-25 as a dog.

7:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (56-38) at Toronto Blue Jays (48-42)

These AL East rivals have experienced polar opposite starts to the second half. The Red Sox just dropped two of three to the Yankees while the Jays just swept the Rangers by a combined score of 25-2. Boston is 2-4 over their past six games while the Jays have won four straight. In tonight's series opener, Boston hands the ball to Nick Pivetta (7-4, 4.30 ERA) and the Jays start Ross Stripling (3-5, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a short -120 home favorite and Boston a + 110 road dog. The public is all over the Red Sox as a plus money dog. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line move toward the Jays (-120 to -130). This signals some wiseguy action "fading the trendy dog" and backing the red-hot bats of the contrarian favorite Blue Jays. Home favorites off a win are 321-200 (62%) this season. Toronto is hitting .265 this season, tied with the Astros for the best batting average in baseball.

10:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (58-34) at Los Angeles Dodgers (58-36)

This pivotal divisional showdown features the top two teams in National League going head-to-head. The Giants have kicked off the second half by losing two of three to the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Dodgers just took two of three against the Rockies. In tonight's series opener, the Giants start Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.73 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with fellow righty Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.13 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed as -105. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -105 to -120. Home favorites have gone 368-224 (62%) since June 1st. The Dodgers have value as a favorite with a low total (8). Historically, the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Dodgers have gone 6-3 against the Giants this season. Los Angeles is 30-14 at home, one of the best home records in MLB.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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