Monday MLB Sharp Report (6-21)

June 21, 2021 01:05 AM

A new week begins with a smaller than usual slate, headlined by 8 MLB games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several MLB games tonight.

8:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (39-30) at Chicago Cubs (40-32)

The Indians are looking to rebound after dropping two of three to the lowly Pirates. Similarly, the Cubs just lost two of three to the Marlins and are just 2-5 over their last 7 games. In tonight's series opener, the Indians give the ball to righty Aaron Civale (10-2, 3.48 ERA) and the Cubs start fellow righty Adbert Alzolay (4-5, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and Cleveland a + 130 road dog. The public says give me the Cubs all day as a moderate home favorite. However, Chicago has dipped slightly from -145 to -140. This indicates some wiseguy action scooping up Cleveland at plus money (+ 130 to + 125). The Tribe are 24-16 against righties while the Cubs are just 27-26 against righties. Interleague teams with line moves in their favor are 78-54 (59%) this season.

8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (35-35) at Minnesota Twins (30-41)

These interleague opponents are trending in opposite directions recently. The Reds have lost four straight and just got swept by the Padres. Meanwhile, the Twins have won four straight and just swept the Rangers. In tonight's series opener, the Reds send out righty Tyler Mahle (7-2, 3.39 ERA) and the Twins counter with veteran lefty J.A. Happ (3-3, 6.12 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -130 road favorite and Minnesota a + 120 home dog. The public sees a layup with the Reds, who have a better record and glaring pitching advantage on paper. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Cincinnati fall from -130 to -117. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Twins (+ 120 to + 107). Non-division home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 135-74 (65%) this season. Interleague home teams with a line move in their favor are 50-30 (63%). We could be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 9.5 with some books juicing the over to -115. These are two of the best over teams in baseball, with the Reds 41-26-3 to the over and the Twins 43-24-4. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to right center.

10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (44-27) at San Diego Padres (42-32)

Both of these NL West rivals enter this crucial divisional series on a hot note. The Dodgers just swept the Diamondback and are now 10-2 over their last 12 games. On the flip side, the Padres just swept the Reds in a four-game series. Tonight's series opener finishes a stellar pitching matchup between Dodgers' lefty Julio Urias (9-2, 3.54 ERA) and Padres' ace Yu Darvish (6-2, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a short -125 home favorite and Los Angeles a + 115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Dodgers getting plus money, which has dropped Los Angeles from + 115 to + 107. The Dodgers have value as a dog off a win and a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. The total opened at a low 6.5 and the over is juiced to -120, signaling some low total over liability. The Dodgers are 37-32-2 to the over. The Padres are 38-34-2 to the over. One big injury to monitor here is San Diego star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. He is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Updated odds to win the NBA Title at BetMGM

Bucks + 110

Suns + 170

Clippers + 700

Hawks + 1100

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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