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Monday MLB Sharp Report (5-10)

May 10, 2021 01:08 AM

Yesterday, we saw MLB unders go 8-5. This has coincided with an intriguing trend we've seen so far this season, as Sunday Unders are now 46-33 (58.2%, + 10 units). Why is this notable? Because on every other day of the week, the under is just 198-213 (48.2%, -28 units). Because it's a small sample, we will have to keep tracking this to see if it's actionable or not. However, the theory behind it makes some sense. Sundays are getaway days. Teams are wrapping up their latest series and looking to move on. Maybe this mindset has contributed to an environment that benefits pitchers over hitters. Or who knows, maybe the umpires are employing bigger strike zones because it's getaway day. Either way, the data shows that Sundays are for the unders (at least for now). 

Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual slate featuring 6 MLB games, 6 NBA games and 9 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (15-16) at Pittsburgh Pirates (14-19)

This NL Central showdown features a pair of teams looking to escape the lower portion of the division standings. The Reds just split a brief two-game series in Cleveland and the Pirates dropped two of three at the Chicago Cubs, although they won Sunday's finale 6-5 as + 150 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Reds trot out righty Tyler Mahle (1-1, 3.23 ERA) and the Pirates give the ball to righty Mitch Keller (2-3, 6.29 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -140 road favorite and the Pirates a + 130 home dog. The public is all over the Reds who have a slightly better record and pitcher on the mound with much better numbers. However, despite this heavy betting on the Reds, we've actually seen this line fall slightly toward the Pirates (+ 130 to + 125). This signals some respected action taking a shot on Pittsburgh at some plus money. The Pirates have value as a contratan divisional dog and a dog off a win (5% ROI this season). The total is a low 8 with heavy under juice (-120), signaling some sharp under money along with a possible fall from 8 to 7.5. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (22-13) at Baltimore Orioles (15-19)

This is the fourth and final game of this AL East division series. Thus far, the Red Sox are a perfect 3-0, outscoring the Orioles by a combined margin of 21-11. In tonight's series finale, the Red Sox send out lefty Martin Perez (0-2, 4.40 ERA) and the Orioles start righty Jorge Lopez (1-3, 6.49 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -143 road favorite and the Orioles a + 132 home dog. The public is pounding the Sox to complete the sweep. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line has either stayed the same or dipped slightly down toward Baltimore (+ 132 to + 128). This signals a sharp line freeze and some reverse line movement on the home dog. Baltimore has value as a divisional dog (5% ROI this season) and a sweet spot dog + 140 or less (4% ROI). We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game here. The total is 9.5 with heavy juice to the under (-120), signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 9. The forecast calls for low 60s with wind blowing in from left-center at 10 MPH. 

9:45 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (18-18) at San Francisco Giants (20-14)

Both of these Interleague foes have played well as of late, with the Rangers just taking two-of-three at home against the Mariners while the Giants also took two-of-three against the Padres at home. In tonight's series opener, the Rangers hand the ball to veteran righty Kyle Gibson (3-0, 2.40 ERA) and the Giants counter with lefty Alex Wood (3-0, 1.96 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a short -135 home favorite and the Rangers a + 125 road dog. Sharps seem to be leaning on the Giants, as we've seen San Francisco tick up from -135 to -140. Teams receiving line movement in their favor in Interleague Play are 30-21 (59%) this season. The Giants also have value as a favorite with a low total (7). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Giants are + 27 in run differential this season. The Rangers are -4. San Francisco is 12-4 at home, the best home record in MLB. 

 

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