Monday MLB Sharp Report (4-26)

April 26, 2021 12:07 AM

Today, a new week begins with 11 MLB games, 11 NBA games and 8 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action.

6:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (7-13) at Cleveland Indians (9-11)

Both of these AL Central rivals have struggled to start the season. The Twins just dropped two straight to the Pirates and are now 2-8 over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Indians just lost three of four at home against the Yankees to fall to 3-7 in their last ten games. In tonight's series opener, the Twins hand the ball to ace Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.00 ERA) while the Indians counter with righty Zach Plesac (1-3, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 road favorite and Cleveland a + 105 home dog. The public sees two struggling teams facing off and says give me the home dog getting plus money. However, sharps seem to be buying low on the Twins as we've seen Minnesota get steamed up from -115 to -120. Some shops are closer to -125. The total is 7.5. Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored makes it more likely to come from the "better" team. The Twins will lean on their bats in this one. Minnesota is hitting .243 on the season, good for 9th in MLB. The Indians are hitting .202, which is dead last in the majors. 

7 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (10-11) at Atlanta Braves (9-12)

Neither of these non-division NL foes have been able to gain much traction so far this season. The Cubs just dropped two out of three at home against the division rival Brewers while the Braves just lost two of three at home against the lowly Diamondbacks. In tonight's series opener, the Cubs turn to Zach Davies (1-2, 8.80 ERA) and the Braves give the ball to veteran Charlie Morton (1-1, 3.91 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a hefty -160 home favorite. Sharps don't seem to be scared off by the heavy chalk and have promptly rushed to the window to fade Davies and his high ERA. This overload of money has pushed Atlanta from -160 to -175. The Braves have value as a team receiving 10 cents or more of steam in a non-division game (56% this season). Pros have also eyed this under. The total opened at 8.5 and we quickly saw wiseguys pounce on the under with the hook. dropping the total to 8 at most shops. The forecast calls for low 70s with wing blowing in from dead center at 5-10 MPH. The Cubs are just 4-11 against righties this season. 

7:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (9-12) at Milwaukee Brewers (13-8)

These non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Marlins just dropped three of four on the road at the Giants and are now just 2-5 over their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Brewers just took two of three on the road against the Cubs to improve to 5-1 over their last six games. In tonight's series opener, the Marlins start lefty Trevor Rogers (2-1, 1.64 ERA) and the Brewers send out ace Corbin Burnes (2-1, 0.37 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a heavy -170 home favorite. Pros seem to be riding the red-hot Burnes train as we've seen the Brewers move from -170 to -180. The Brewers are + 18 in run differential this season, second best in the NL. The Marlins are + 1. Milwaukee is 13-8 against righties this season. Miami is 6-9 against righties.  We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total opened at 6.5 and the under is juiced up to -115. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season. Miami is 10-8-3 to the under and the Brewers are 13-7-1 to the under. 

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