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Monday MLB Sharp Report (4-12)

April 12, 2021 12:15 AM

Today, a new week begins with 14 MLB games, 9 NBA games and 8 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

2:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (6-3) at Minnesota Twins (5-4)

This AL showdown is the lone day game on Monday's jam-packed slate. The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball, having won six straight games. Boston just earned consecutive sweeps over the Orioles and Rays. Meanwhile, the Twins have dropped two straight to the Mariners at home. In this afternoon's series opener, Boston sends out Martin Perez (0-0, 5.40 ERA) and the Twins will start J.A. Happ (0-0, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -150 home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Red Sox getting plus money, dropping Boston from + 140 to + 130. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 26-25 (51%) this season, posting a return on investment (ROI) of nearly 20%. The Red Sox also have value as a dog with a high total. Boston's advantage may come on offense. The Red Sox are hitting .283 so far, which is 3rd best in MLB. The Twins are hitting .262. There looks to be some liability on a higher scoring game as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -120. The forecast calls for low 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead center, which bodes well for the over. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Boston 7-2 and Minnesota 5-4. 

6:35 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (7-3) at Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6)

Both of these non-division NL foes are riding win streaks. The Padres have won three straight games, having just swept the Rangers in Texas. Meanwhile, the Pirates just took two of three from the Cubs at home, which snapped a six-game losing skid. In tonight's series opener, San Diego trots out ace Yu Darvish (0-0, 4.22 ERA) while the Pirates give the ball to Trevor Cahill (0-1, 15.75 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a hefty -200 road favorite. Sharps don't seem to be scared away by the big number as we've seen pros steam San Diego from -200 up to -220. Some shops are closer to -230. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 38-28 (58%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 11-3 (79%). This difference maker here could be the Padres' superior pitching. San Diego's team ERA is 1.78, best in MLB. Pittsburgh's ERA is 5.45, which ranks 28th. We've also seen some under money show up. The total opened at 8.5 and respected money pounced on the under with the hook, which forced oddsmakers to drop the line down to 8. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season. San Diego is 8-2 to the under and Pittsburgh is 5-4 to the under. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (3-6) at Tampa Bay Rays (4-5)

These AL opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Rangers just got swept by the Padres and were outscored 12-4 along the way. Meanwhile, the Rays just took two out of three from the division rival Yankees at home. In tonight's series opener, the Rangers start Dane Dunning (1-0, 1.80 ERA) while the Rays counter with ace Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 0.75 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a heavy -200 home favorite. Wiseguys have rushed to the window to lay the chalk with Tampa Bay, pushing the Rays up to -230. Home favorites -200 or more are 8-2 (80%) this season. Teams with big steam of 20-cents or more in their favor are 13-7 (65%) this season. Sharps are also expecting a lower-scoring game. The total opened at 8 and quickly got bet down to 7.5. Some shops are even trending down to 7. Unders in non-division games have cashed at roughly a 55% at Tropicana Field over the past decade. Dome or closed roof stadiums provide an edge to unders as the pitching conditions are perfect and the ball doesn't travel as well.

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