Monday MLB and NBA Playoff Sharp Report (6-28)

June 28, 2021 01:08 AM

A new week begins with another loaded betting menu, headlined by 11 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of games tonight.

5:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (29-47) at Colorado Rockies (31-47)

This matchup features two of the three worst teams in the National League. However, they are trending in opposite directions. The Pirates are 6-4 over their last ten games and just took three of four on the road at St. Louis. On the flip side, the Rockies are 4-6 over their last ten and just got swept at Milwaukee. In this early evening opener, the Pirates give the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (3-7, 4.82 ERA) and the Rockies start fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland (0-2, 7.76 ERA). This line opened with Colorado listed as a short -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a + 115 road dog. The public sees two bad teams and says give me the favorite at home with the slightly better record. However, this line has dipped from Rockies -125 to -120. This indicates some wiseguy money taking a shot with the road dog who is playing better as of late. Pittsburgh has value as a contrarian road dog with a high total (11.5). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the higher number of expected runs scored levels the playing field and leads to more variance and upset opportunities. Sharps have also hit this Coors Field over, driving the total up from 11 to 11.5. The over is 21-18 (54%) at Coors this season. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (37-40) at New York Yankees (40-37)

Both of these non-division opponents are looking to rebound from recent tough stretches. The Angels are just 1-5 over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Yankees just got swept by the Red Sox in Boston. In tonight's series opener, the Angels hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.68 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow righty Michael King (0-3, 4.05 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Los Angeles a + 125 road dog. Pros and Joes both see an edge with the Yankees at home on "Fade Bundy Day" and have steamed New York up from -135 to -150. The Yankees have value as a non-division home favorite (264-157, 63% this season). New York also fits a non-division home favorite sweet spot (between -150 and -175). These teams are 59-24 (71%) this season. Non-division home teams coming off a loss receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 61-33 (65%). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 9.5 and has been bet up to 10. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. The Angels are one of the best over teams in baseball (47-30).

9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Suns lead the series 3-1 and can punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a victory tonight. Phoenix is coming off an 84-80 win in Game 5, winning at 1-point road dogs. Now the series heads back to Phoenix. This line opened with the Suns listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Suns, who are an incredible 10-4 ATS (71%) in the playoffs including 7-2 ATS (78%) as a favorite. Despite this lopsided betting, we've actually seen the line fall from Suns -6 to -5.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Clippers, with respected wiseguys grabbing the points and expecting Los Angeles to keep it close. This is the biggest spread of the series, with the previous high Clippers + 4.5 in Game 2. We've also seen pro money hit this under, dropping the total from 215.5 to 214.5. The under is 3-1 this series. The under is 5-2 in the Conference Finals this postseason. When the total is 215 or less, the under is 8-3 this postseason. Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for this game. Leading the series 3-1, the Suns are -2500 favorites (96%) to advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers are + 1200 dogs. The Suns are now + 110 to win the NBA Title, second best odds overall behind the Bucks (-105). 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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