Monday MLB & College Football Sharp Report (9-6)

Happy Labor Day! I'm back from vacation and excited to get back into the swing of things. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of games today....

4:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (86-51) at St. Louis Cardinals (69-66)

This non-division series is huge for both teams. The Dodgers own the first NL Wild Card spot and only trail the first place Giants by 1-game in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are just 3-games back of the second NL Wild Card spot. In this late afternoon series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to ace Max Scherzer (12-4, 2.40 ERA) and St. Louis counters with righty Miles Mikolas (0-1, 4.41 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -190 road favorite and the Cardinals a  175 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive price and are happy to back Scherzer and the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -190 to -205. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 272-176 (60.7%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 209-86 (70.8%). Los Angeles also has value as a big favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have provided an edge to favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Dodgers are 86-48 as a favorite and 60-37 against righties. The Cardinals are 28-38 as dogs and 49-53 against righties. 

6:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (59-77) at Cleveland Indians (68-66)

Both of these AL Central rivals are well out of playoff contention. Cleveland trails the second Wild Card spot by 8.5-games while the Twins own the third-worst record in the American League. In tonight's series opener, Minnesota hands the ball to righty Bailey Ober (2-2. 3.98 ERA) and Cleveland counters with lefty Logan Allen (1-5, 6.62 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Indians a  100 home dog. The public can't believe they're getting plus money with Cleveland, who is at home and owns a better won-loss record. However, pros seem to be targeting the Twins as we've seen Minnesota get steamed up from -110 to -127. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more coming off a win are 233-157 (59.7%) this season. Short road favorites -150 or less coming off a win are 154-100 (60.6%). Minnesota matches both systems as they just beat the Rays 6-5 on Sunday as big  200 road dogs. We could be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The Twins are 7-5 against the Indians. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -155, signaling a possible rise to 9.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Minnesota 76-52 to the over and Cleveland 71-58 to the over. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 matchups between these teams. 

8 p.m. ET: Louisville Cardinals (0-0) at Ole Miss Rebels (0-0)

This Chick-Fil-A Kickoff showdown is the only college football game on Tuesday night. It will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, home of the Falcons. Louisville went 4-7 last season while Ole Miss went 5-5. The Rebels rebounded from a 1-4 start to go 4-1 the rest of the way, capped off by a 26-20 win over Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Tonight's line opened with Ole Miss listed as an 8-point favorite. Pros and Joes seem united on laying the chalk, as we've seen lopsided action push the Rebels up from -8 to -9.5 or -10. Some shops got hit with some Louisville buyback at  10 or  10.5. One variable here: Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin tested positive for COVID and will not travel or coach the game. The public sees the Ole Miss high-flying offense and is betting the over. However, despite this lopsided betting the total has remained frozen at 75.5, signaling some contrarian under money in a heavily bet primetime game. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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