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Monday March Madness Sharp Report

March 22, 2021 12:37 AM

March Madness underdogs continued their torrid stretch on Sunday, going 6-2 ATS with five outright wins. Dogs are now 28-15 ATS (65%) through the first 43 games of the NCAA Tournament. Today we have eight more games to wrap up the second round. Monday's action also features 8 NBA games and 10 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for a handful of March Madness games today...

12:10 p.m. ET: Oregon vs Iowa

This West Region showdown is the first game of the day on Monday. Oregon (20-6) enters as the 7-seed. The Ducks advanced to the second round without playing a game as they earned a forfeit win over VCU (positive COVID tests). On the flip side, 2-seed Iowa (22-8) just beat Grand Canyon 86-74 in the first round, although they failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a modest 4-point favorite. Wiseguys seem to think the line is too low and they've promptly steamed Iowa, driving the spread from -4 to -5. Ken Pom has Iowa winning by five points, which is why the early -4 and -4.5 was the ideal number to back Iowa. One reason the pros like Iowa may in part be a fade of Oregon as the Ducks are making their postseason debut and haven't played in 10-days. We've also seen some respected money hit this over, driving the total up from 145.5 to 147.5 

5:15 p.m. ET: Abilene Christian vs UCLA

This East Region matchup features 14-seed Abilene Christian (24-4) against 11-seed UCLA (19-9). Abilene Christian upset 3-seed Texas in the opening round, winning outright as 8.5-point dogs. UCLA will be playing its third game of the tournament upsetting Michigan State 86-80 in the play-in game and then upsetting 6-seed BYU 73-62. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But we've seen this line either stay at 5 or drop to 4.5 depending on the book. This signals liability on the side of Abilene Christian plus the points. Ken Pom has UCLA winning by five points, which is right on the number. Abilene also has value as a slow paced dog. Dogs with a pace of 70 or less are 19-12 ATS (61%) this March Madness. Abilene will lean on their smothering defense in this one. The Wildcats are only allowing 60.2 PPG, the 4th best in the country.

6:10 p.m. ET: Ohio vs Creighton

This West Region showdown pits 13-seed Ohio (17-7) against 5-seed Creighton (21-8). Ohio just upset 4-seed Virginia 62-58 in the first round, winning outright as 7-point dogs. Meanwhile, Creighton barely hung on for a 63-62 win over 12-seed Santa Barbara, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 6-point favorite. This public is all over the higher-seeded favorite Creighton. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line fall from 6 to 5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Ohio, with wiseguys grabbing the points not laying them. Ken pom has Ohio losing by six points, which is right on the number. Ohio will lean on their high powered offense to keep this one close. The Bobcats are averaging 80.1 PPG, which is 22nd-best in the nation. 

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