Monday Elite 8 Sharp Report for Oregon State-Houston and Arkansas-Baylor

March 28, 2021 11:27 AM

The Sweet 16 is over and now we turn our attention to the Elite 8, which begins tonight. On Sunday we saw favorites go 3-1 ATS and 3-1 straight up. The lone dog to win and cover was UCLA (+ 7), who upset Alabama 88-78. Despite a chalky Sunday, dogs still have the edge in March Madness (33-25 ATS, 56.9%). Over/Unders split 2-2 on Sunday and are now 34-23 (59.6%) in the NCAA Tournament.

As we enter the Elite 8, here are the updated odds to win the NCAA Tournament via BetMGM

Gonzaga + 125

Baylor + 450

Michigan + 600

Houston + 700

Arkansas + 1600

USC + 1800

UCLA + 2000

Oregon State + 2000

BetMGM also has odds on which state the champion will hail from

Washington + 125

Texas + 225

Michigan + 600

California + 800

Arkansas + 1600

Oregon + 2000

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for tonight's Elite 8 matchups..

7:15 p.m. ET: Oregon State vs Houston

This Midwest Region showdown features Cinderella 12-seed Oregon State (20-12) against 2-seed Houston (27-3). Oregon State is on an incredible betting streak. The Beavers have notched six straight upset victories, winning outright as dogs in every game since the start of the Pac 12 Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, Oregon State has upset 5-seed Tennessee 70-56, 4-seed Oklahoma State 80-70 and 8-seed Loyola Chicago 65-58. Now they face a Houston team that has won ten straight games. The Cougars crushed 15-seed Cleveland State 87-56 and then beat 10-seed Rutgers 63-60 and 11-seed Syracuse 62-46. This line opened with Houston listed as an 8-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with red-hot Houston. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line remain frozen at 8 or even dip to 7.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and reverse line move on the dog, with respected money leaning Beavers plus the points. Dogs that have the line stay the same or fall in their direction are 18-12 ATS (60%) this NCAA Tournament. Ken Pom is a bit more bullish on Houston. He has the Cougars winning this game by nine points. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 130.5 to 130. Some books are inching toward 129. Unders in which the total stays the same or falls are 24-16 (60%) this NCAA Tournament.

9:57 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Baylor

This South Region grudge match features 3-seed Arkansas (25-6) against 1-seed Baylor (25-2). Arkansas has beaten 14-seed Colgate 85-68, upset 6-seed Texas Tech 68-66 and barely gotten by 15-seed Oral Roberts 72-70. Meanwhile, Baylor has cruised in the NCAA Tournament, easily handling 16-seed Hartford 79-55, 9-seed Wisconsin 76-63 and 5-seed Villanova 62-51. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 7-point favorite. The public respects Baylor but can't pass up grabbing Arkansas getting a handful of points. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Razorbacks, we've seen Baylor move from -7 to -7.5. Some shops are even juicing up the Bears -7.5 to -115, hinting at a further move to -8. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baylor with pros fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite. Ken Pom has Baylor winning by seven points, which is right on the number. We've also seen some under money hit this total, dropping the line slightly from 149.5 to 148.5. When the total is 140 or higher, the under is 16-8 (67%) this NCAA Tournament. The under has cashed in five straight Arkansas games.


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