Monday CBB Sharp Report


In one of the wildest and most entertaining Divisional Round playoffs in recent memory, dogs and favorites split 1-1 ATS on Sunday and overs went a perfect 2-0. In the early game, the Rams (3) almost coughed up a huge lead but held on to take down the defending champion Bucs 30-27. In the nightcap, the Chiefs (-2.5) walked off against the Bills 42-36 in overtime. Overall, favorites are now 6-4 ATS this postseason and unders 6-4. 

We are officially down to the Final Four in the NFL. Here are the updated Super Bowl odds at BetMGM
Chiefs 120
Rams 200
49ers 450
Bengals 800
Here are the early AFC and NFC Championship game odds. 
Bengals at Chiefs (-7) OU 53.5
49ers at Rams (-3.5) OU 46.5
Now it's on to Monday where bettors have 3 NBA games, 7 NHL games and a full College Basketball card to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:40 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss several College Basketball games receiving sharp action tonight...
7 p.m. ET: Florida at Mississippi
This SEC grudge match looks lopsided on paper. Florida (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) have won three straight games and just waxed Vanderbilt 61-42, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Mississippi (9-9 SU, 7-11 ATS) has dropped four straight and just got rolled by Mississippi State 78-60, failing to cover as 11-point road dogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Gators, yet we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Rebels plus the points. Ole Miss has value as a contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has Florida winning by six points (69-63). One variable to note here: Florida will miss leading scorer Colin Castleton (15.4 PPG) with an injury. Ole Miss is 8-3 at home. Florida is 1-2 on the road. 
7 p.m. ET: Towson at Delaware
This matchup features two of the best teams in the Colonial Conference facing off. Towson (14-6 SU, 14-5-1 ATS) just saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, falling to UNC Wilmington 81-77 and losing outright as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Delaware (14-6 SU, 8-11 ATS) has won three straight and just edged Elon 80-77, although they failed to cover as 9-point home favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has steamed the home team, pushing Delaware to a 2-point favorite. Delaware holds the edge on offense (76 PPG vs 72 PPG) and also shoots the ball better (48% vs 44%). Delaware also has value as a buy-low bad ATS team (8-11) against a sell-high good ATS team (14-5-1). Delaware is 7-0 at home this season. Ken Pom has Towson winning by 1-point (73-72). 
7 p.m. ET: UNC Wilmington at Northeastern
These Colonial Conference rivals are trending in opposite directions. UNC Wilmington (11-5 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) is riding an 8-game win streak, most recently upsetting Towson 81-77 and winning outright as 9-point road dogs. On the other hand, Northeastern (6-12 SU, 6-11-1 ATS) has lost eight games in a row and just got crushed by Hofstra 72-50, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Northeastern listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen several shops juice up the  3 to -115, signaling wiseguys leaning UNC Wilmington plus the points and a possible fall from 3 down to 2.5. UNC Wilmington holds the edge offensively (69 PPG vs 64 PPG), defensively (allowing 67 PPG vs 70 PPG) and on the boards (36 RPG vs 32 RPG). UNC Wilmington is 5-0 in conference play. Northeastern is 0-7. UNC Wilmington is 5-3 on the road. Northeastern is 4-4 at home. Ken Pom has Northeastern winning by three points (67-64), but he has UNC Wilmington ranked higher (241 vs 251). 
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