MNF Sharp Report: Titans-Bills and Vikings-Eagles


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. It will be posted at 6:30 a.m. ET. For an in-depth breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining VSiN Primetime at 8:15 p.m. ET. 

Sunday was a big day for dogs, as teams getting points went 8-3-1 ATS including six outright wins. Unders posted their second winning week, going 8-4-1. Unders are now 21-9 (70%) to start the season. Primetime unders are a perfect 5-0. 

We have a pair of games left in Week 2. Let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football doubleheader...

7:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

The Titans are coming off a 21-20 loss to the Giants, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills rolled the Rams in the NFL season opener 31-10, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with the Bills, steaming Buffalo up from -7.5 to -10. The Bills are receiving 66% of the bets but 77% of money at DraftKings, signaling both public and wiseguy support with a +11% sharp bet discrepancy. The Bills enjoy a notable 3-day rest advantage, having last played on September 8th while the Titans last played September 11th. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total down from 50.5 to 47.5. Both teams went under in Week 1. The under is only receiving 36% of bets but 48% of the money, indicating sharp money banking on a lower-scoring game. The forecast calls for 70 degrees with 10 MPH winds. Historically, when the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Both of these playoffs hopefuls won their respective season openers. The Vikings crushed the Packers 23-7, easily covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles beat the Lions 38-35 but failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early on, we saw this line fall from 3 down to 1.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Vikings. However, over the weekend we saw sharp action buyback the Eagles at a deflated price, driving the line back up from Philadelphia -1.5 to -2.5 where it rests now. The public is all over the Vikings, with 67% of bets taking the points. This makes Minnesota a "Trendy Dog" that wiseguys like to bet against. The Eagles are only receiving 33% of bets but a whopping 79% of money, a massive +46% sharp money discrepancy. The Eagles has value as an unpopular contrarian home favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. Philadelphia also has value as a buy-low team who didn't cover last week against a sell-high team that did cover. This total opened at 48.5 and got bet up to 52. That was the high water mark as late under money has dropped the total back down to 50.5. 

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