YRFI and NRFI MLB Best Bets for Sunday, September 17

By Jared Smith  (VSiN.com) 

September 17, 2023 11:54 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets

Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets 

I went 0-2 on Saturday’s best bets as my cold September stretch continues. There’s no sugar-coating. This is a slump, as I’ve gone just 5-11 this month. As I explained in yesterday’s column, I’m not doing anything different now than I was last month, or earlier this season, when the results were also highly volatile. 

That being said, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. I think you have to be a little crazy to bet and track this market every day like I do, but I’m also not too stubborn to admit it’s time to change things up a bit to snap out of this funk. So instead of offering two individual wagers today, I’m going to try something I’ve been working on and betting myself recently, which is parlaying under 1.5 runs to be scored in the first inning of two separate games.

The big advantage to this strategy is it gives us something we typically never receive in this market, a second chance. It forgives those lightning strikes which tend to only happen once per inning and kill this wager immediately, like a two-out solo homer or a run-scoring error. I know what you’re thinking, parlays are bad for your bankroll. Well sure, 10-leg longshots are. But these are two legs usually priced between -250 and -400, both of which I perceive as valuable. I will also do my best to space out the games, giving us maximum flexibility for a possible hedge.

So that’s how I will approach this column today and for the final two weeks. Two games, one parlay, to win three units. Keep reading to find out my best bet for Sunday, September 17th which was priced at -125 on DraftKings at the time of publication. 

Best Bets Season Record: 58-60 (49.2%) -19.76u -7.6% ROI


Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Brandon Williamson is 14-6 (70%) to the NRFI this season which is just below league average. The lefty’s recent form has been stellar with a 3.46 xFIP and 10.1 K/9 over his last seven starts. He draws a Mets lineup that has recorded just a 26% scoring rate (19-for-74) at home this season, well below league average.  

Jose Quintana is 7-3 (70%) to the NRFI this season which like Williamson is hovering just below league average. The lefty has done a good job limiting the long balls this season and has not allowed an early home run all season. He draws a Reds lineup that has just a 20% (15-for-75) scoring rate on the road this season, the third-lowest in all of baseball. 

Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 1st Inning (-285)


Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Pivetta is 10-3 (76.9%) to the NRFI this season which is slightly above league average. The righty has been in good form of late with a 3.26 xFIP and 33% K-rate over his last nine starts. He draws a Blue Jays lineup that has recorded a 23% (17-for-74) scoring rate in the first inning at home this season, well below league average. 

Hyun Jin Ryu is 5-3 (62.5%) to the NRFI this season, which is below league average, but tough to gauge his effectiveness considering the limited sample due to various ailments. He draws a Red Sox lineup that has recorded a 22% (16-for-73) scoring rate on the road this season, well below league average. 

Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 1st Inning (-295)


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