YRFI and NRFI MLB Best Bets for Sunday, October 1

By Jared Smith  ( 

October 1, 2023 10:25 AM


Saturday’s best bet was a loser thanks to Mike Clevinger’s implosion in the top of the first inning. That’s what happens when you walk two batters and give up a wild pitch. It halts our winning streak at three and pushes my record to 4-2 since switching to this new under 1.5 parlay approach. With just one day left in the regular season this will be my final opportunity to analyze a full card.

Be sure to check lineups before you make your wagers as many teams will sit regular starters with nothing to play for. It’s been a blast writing these up for you this summer and I look forward to continuing to grow this column in the future. 

Keep reading to find out my final best bet of the regular season for Sunday, October 1st which was priced at -123 on Draftkings at the time of publication. I recommend two units.

Best Bets Season Record: 62-62 (50.0%) -16.72u -6.0% ROI

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Michael King is 5-3 to the NRFI this season but his recent form has been spectacular. King is allowing just a 2.81 xFIP with a 2.18 ERA over his last five starts. The Royals lineup has been red hot down the stretch, scoring an early run in their last three games, but they have only 12 career plate appearances against King and their best two hitters, Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr., are a career 1-for-7 against him. 

Zack Greinke is 22-4 to the NRFI this season and a remarkable 14-0 at home. He’s been steady all season especially at Kauffman Stadium with a 3.75 ERA compared to 6.75 on the road. The Yankees lineup has been very average in the first inning on the road this season with a 25% scoring rate. They’re batting just .205 in the first inning over the last two weeks. 

Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 1st inning (-300)

Philadelphia Phillies at New YorK Mets

Matt Strahm is 6-3 to the NRFI this season. He will serve as an opener and will likely only pitch one inning. Strahm’s been trending in a positive direction since the All-Star break with a 2.59 ERA in the second half compared to 3.74 in the first. The Mets lineup has struggled in the first inning all season with just a 26% scoring rate at home, well below league average.


Jose Butto is 6-0 to the NRFI and has come on strong over the final month. His last outing was also against the Phillies, which is a bit concerning, but he pitched a clean opening frame in that game and didn’t give up any runs until his second time through the lineup. Philadelphia has a 30% scoring rate on the road this season which is above league average, but after a doubleheader yesterday and the wild card looming early next week Bryce Harper will sit today. Plus Trea Turner is banged up and won’t play. 

Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 1st inning (-275)

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A Numbers Game: If you’re looking to bet NBA Cup Championship game, make sure you compare prices with the MVP market. For example, you’re better off betting LeBron to win MVP than the Lakers in that game. On the flip side, you should bet Pacers ML over Haliburton MVP.  View more tips.

Mike Somich: Pacers vs Lakers - UNDER (240.5). View more picks.