YRFI and NRFI MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 7th, 2023

By Jared Smith  (VSiN.com) 

May 7, 2023 07:49 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets

The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I'm tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. Keep reading to find out my top plays for Sunday, May 7th.

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Red Sox at Phillies

This game didn’t work out for us yesterday, but I’ll gladly go right back to the well and bank on another early run with Tanner Houck and Taijuan Walker taking the mound in Philly. Houck has slightly better first inning numbers, with a NRFI record of 4-2 and a first inning xFIP of just below 5.00 this season. Walker is an even 3-3 with an elevated FIP above 8.00 and an xFIP not too far behind at 5.20.

The Phillies had a streak of five straight YRFIs heading into yesterday’s game, which is now five of the last six, but they are still the most profitable YRFI team in MLB this season with an overall record of 22-12, up nearly nine units. The Red Sox are much more adept at early scoring at home than they are on the road, pushing across a run in only 20% of games away from Fenway Park this season (3-of-15) but they’ve got some decent exposure to Walker, most notably Justin Turner who is batting nearly .300 off him (5 for 17) with a HR. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo will also likely see an AB in the top of the first, and they are a combined 2-for-9 in their career against Walker. 

Similar to yesterday, this game has one of the highest totals on the board today, so an early run is more likely than not to occur.

Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-130)

Marlins at Cubs

From one of the highest totals on the board to one of the lowest ones. Reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara takes the mound today at Wrigley Field which means I feel really good about no run being scored in the bottom of the first against the Cubs lineup. Alcantara has a perfect 6-0 NRFI record this season and is 86-24 since 2019 (78.2%) which is well above average. His first inning xFIP is just 1.70, the lowest on the board today of any pitcher who has started more than two games this season. 

Hayden Wesneski takes the ball for Chicago, his numbers have been unsurprisingly worse than Alcantara’s this season, with just a 2-4 NRFI record and an xFIP hovering around 7.00 in the first inning. However the young righty is coming off 2 consecutive NRFI starts against the Padres and Nationals where he only allowed nine combined hits and two earned runs in 11 total innings with just one walk. He is also getting a fresh look at this Marlins lineup, with just two career plate appearances against, both coming off Jean Segura, who likely won’t reach the plate in the first inning. 

Neither lineup has been particularly potent in the first inning this season. The Marlins have scored just twice in 15 road games this season (13.3%) while the Cubs have been just slightly above average in that category scoring seven times in 18 home games (38.9%). The wind is also not a factor at Wrigley Field today, blowing out to center at less than 10 mph. 

Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)

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