Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I'm tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years, and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, June 4th.
All odds via DraftKings
Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins
Miami is the most profitable NRFI team in baseball this season, up 16 units overall with a 66% hit rate (39-for-59). The NRFI is also 28-6 when priced at -120 or higher, which it is again today. I trust Sandy Alcantara to get the job done in the top of the first. The reigning Cy Young winner has struggled a bit with his overall numbers this season, but he’s still posted a 10-1 NRFI record and 6-0 at home. He also gets a virtually fresh look at this Athletics lineup with just three career plate appearances against Jace Peterson, who is not in Sunday’s projected lineup.
Paul Blackburn concerns me a bit in the bottom of the first, but mostly just because of sample size. The righty has made just one start this season completing four innings and allowing just one run with six strikeouts against the Braves. However, he allowed that run in the first inning, but it was encouraging to see him settle down from there and I’m expecting him to carry that over into today. Another minor concern is Blackburn’s 9-9 NRFI record on the road since 2019, which is mediocre at best. Thankfully he’s getting a fresh look at a Miami offense with the lowest first inning home scoring rate this season at 17.24% (5-for-29).
Here’s how each pitcher has fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Paul Blackburn vs:
Luis Arraez (neve faced)
Jorge Soler (never faced)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Sandy Alcantara vs:
Esteury Ruiz (never faced)
Ryan Noda (never faced)
Brent Rooker (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-130)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
One of my favorite NRFI strategies to employ during the regular season, filled with many ups and downs, is to fade lineups after big offensive outbursts. These teams combined for 22 runs in yesterday’s slugfest, and I really like the pitching matchup on both sides today. Bryce Miller and Nathan Eovaldi have a combined 14-3 NRFI record this season, and each fits the profile of a guy I’m comfortable backing in the opening frame because they both are in the top half of the league in terms of fastball velocity.
Eovaldi has evolved into one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball, going eight consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or less. Meanwhile, Miller has burst onto the scene in his rookie campaign, and despite coming off a disastrous outing against a hot Yankees lineup allowing eight earned runs, his ERA is still just 3.00 this season. He also gets the advantage of facing this Texas lineup for the first time. Now I’m definitely more concerned with that side of the matchup, especially after Texas scored 16 runs yesterday, but Miller has the stuff to quiet things down for at least an inning.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Bryce Miller vs:
Marcus Semien (never faced)
Corey Seager (never faced)
Nathaniel Lowe (never faced)
Nathan Eovaldi vs:
J.P. Crawford (1-for-8)
Ty France (4-for-9)
Julio Rodriguez (0-for-8)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-125)
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