Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 2-0 on Saturday with my best bets and improved my record to 25-21 on the season with VSIN writeups. The Marlins helped out by getting right back on the NRFI train against the Pirates, and we capped things off with a relatively easy winner in Detroit between the Twins and Tigers.
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Even if we only go 1-1 today, it will be a profitable week, but of course, I have loftier goals. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, June 25th.
All odds via DraftKings
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
If the law of averages tells us anything, the Marlins NRFI is cashing in more than two out of three hypothetical scenarios this season, which means it’s a must-bet today after going 1-1 in the first two games of this series. After yesterday Miami’s NRFI record improved to a ludicrous 54-24 (69.2%) and is up almost 26 units overall. It’s mostly because of their pitching staff, which has the lowest xFIP in the first inning of any team in MLB this season (3.41).
Today, it’s rookie sensation Eury Perez on the hill, putting his unblemished 8-0 NRFI record to the test. He draws a Pirates offense that has now failed to score a first-inning run in 10 straight games after yesterday’s bagel. Johan Oviedo scares me a bit on the other side with just an 8-7 NRFI record this season and an elevated xFIP over 5.00 in the first inning. However, it’s encouraging to see his ERA trend down in each month so far (April 4.78, May 4.15, June 3.78) and he faces a Marlins offense that has posted a minuscule 15% scoring rate in the 1st inning at home this season (6-for-40).
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Johan Oviedo vs:
Luis Arraez (never faced)
Jorge Soler (never faced)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Eury Perez vs:
Ke’Bryan Hayes (never faced)
Andrew McCutchen ((never faced)
Connor Joe (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Since Aaron Judge played his last game on June 3rd, the Yankees have compiled an 11-6 NRFI record and have the lowest wRC+ in all of MLB. The Rangers’ offense also suffered serious regression after their hot start. Texas has failed to score a first-inning run in 17 of their last 18 games. These teams played to a 1-0 snoozer yesterday, and it won’t get any easier for either offense today with a pair of aces on the mound.
Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole have posted a combined 26-5 NRFI record this season with exceptional data across the board to back it up. This will be the seventh and final matchup between these teams in the regular season, with the NRFI going 5-1 in the first six, including both games of this series. Please shop around for this number as I am seeing -125 and -130 at some sportsbooks.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Nathan Eovaldi vs:
Jake Bauers (0-for-3)
Gleyber Torres (8-for-41)
Anthony Rizzo (9-for-22, 2 HR)
Gerrit Cole vs:
Marcus Semien (10-for-38, 2 HR)
Corey Seager (3-for-13)
Nathaniel Lowe (2-for-10)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)
