Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
Friday's best bet found the win column once again, which makes it three straight and four out of five since switching over to this new under 1.5 parlay strategy. I don’t think I’m reinventing the wheel here, nor do I have enough data to definitively say this is going to be profitable long-term, but this wager has a different feel to it when you give yourself some wiggle room by allowing a single run.
At some point when things slow down this spring I will go back and examine how many NRFI wagers I lost because of one run being scored, which will help me figure out if I would have been profitable this season if I had been using this strategy for the duration. But that’s all just future speculation, I’d prefer to stay focused on the present and close out these final two days on a winning note.
Keep reading to find out my best bet for Saturday, September 30th which was priced at -145 on DraftKings at the time of publication. I recommend two units.
Best Bets Season Record: 62-61 (50.4%) -13.72u -5.0% ROI
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Shawn Armstrong is 5-0 to the NRFI this season and has an impressive 32% strikeout rate in the first inning. The recent form has been stellar with a 0.88 WHIP in 21 appearances since August 1st. He draws a Blue Jays lineup that has the lowest wRC+ in the first inning this month with just a .140 batting average.
Hyun Jin Ryu is 6-4 to the NRFI this season in a limited sample due to injury. Home runs have been an issue since his return, but the lefty is allowing just a .184 batting average against in the first inning. The Rays lineup has been elite all season in the first inning with a 37% overall scoring rate, but I’m banking on them sleepwalking through this weekend with their postseason positioning set. On the flip side of that argument, Ryu has work to do in order to gain momentum heading into the playoffs as Toronto can clinch a spot today with a win.
Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 first inning (-300)
San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox
Michael Wacha is 17-6 to the NRFI this season. His stuff has tailed off a bit lately with a 5.54 ERA this month, but he gets the significantly easier side of this matchup facing a White Sox lineup without slugger Luis Robert. Chicago has only scored once in the first inning in the week since Robert’s injury, and it all came off one swing when Eloy Jimenez hit a two-out home run. Jimenez has never faced Wacha before, so I’m not as concerned with him ruining this wager.
Mike Clevinger is also 17-6 to the NRFI this season, but unlike Wacha, he’s been stellar in the second half with a 2.96 ERA compared to 3.88 in the first half. The Padres lineup is dangerous at the top, but they have nothing to play for, and I like the motivational angle of Clevinger facing his former team after spending the prior two seasons in San Diego.
Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 first inning (-370)
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