YRFI and NRFI MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 23

By Jared Smith  (VSiN.com) 

September 23, 2023 11:03 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets

Friday’s best bet was a loser as Framber Valdez had a total meltdown in the first inning allowing four runs. Gross. Cole Ragans also allowed a run in the bottom of the inning, the first blemish of his career, so it's fair to say this pick was doomed from the start. The late game was a success with Oakland actually scoring just once in the bottom of the first. Despite the setback, my strategy remains the same today. One parlay, two games, three units. 

Keep reading to find out my best bet for Saturday, September 23rd which was priced at -154 on Draftkings at the time of publication.

Best Bets Season Record: 59-61 (49.2%) -19.72u -7.4% ROI

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

Dylan Cease is 25-6 to the NRFI this season with solid data across the board. His bugaboo has been walks and homers, but I’m not sure that will be a factor today. Not only do the Red Sox have one of the lowest walk rates this month, but Tropical Storm Ophelia is making her presence felt across the northeast, with strong winds blowing in from centerfield, which will make going deep more difficult. 

Nick Pivetta is 11-3 to the NRFI this season with very strong data, most notably a 12.1 K/9 rate over his last three outings, the highest of any starting pitcher on the board today. Chicago struggles to score early on the road with just a 20% rate, one of the lowest in baseball.

Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 (-340)

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Jose Quintana is 7-4 to the NRFI this season and has not allowed a home run in the first inning. That trend should continue today with Tropical Ophelia bearing down on the east coast. The Phillies offense has been perking up this month, but overall this season they’ve been hit or miss against lefties. I downgrade their top lefty sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper dramatically today not only because of the weather, but also the matchup. Quintana has not allowed a home run to a left-handed batter all season. 

Zack Wheeler is 24-6 to the NRFI this season and has consistently been one of the best first-inning pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. The Mets offense has really struggled in the first inning, especially on the road with just a 19% scoring rate, one of the lowest in baseball. 

Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 1st inning (-360)

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Follow The Money: Michigan vs. Iowa is seeing a total of 34.5 currently, Iowa's offense has been historically bad. Michigan may be able to hit this total to the over on their own. If considering unders look at the Iowa team total. View more tips.

Chris Fallica: Georgia (-5). View more picks.