Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I'm tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, May 20th.
All odds via DraftKings
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
I will continue to ride this trend until it bucks us. The NRFI in Marlins games improved to 21-4 last night when priced at -125 or higher, which it currently is again today. The pitching matchup isn’t as juicy as it was last night, with Miami sending Braxton Garrett to the mound. The southpaw has posted a 5-2 NRFI record this season but his xFIP is 2.01, which is one of the lowest on the board today. The Giants have also really struggled against lefties, ranked 26th in 1st inning wRC+ vs. LHP this season. Overall their scoring rate at home is also below average at 29.1% (7-for-24).
The Giants send Logan Webb to the hill, who has posted a 6-3 NRFI record this season and 3-1 at home. His overall data has been average but he gets the easier side of the matchup. Miami’s lineup has one of the lowest 1st inning scoring rates on the road this season at just 15% (3-for-20). Overall the Fish have failed to score in 8 straight, which is the longest active streak in MLB. It’s also a streak that’s coincided with the loss of their leadoff hitter, Jazz Chisholm Jr., who was placed on the IL with turf toe earlier this week.
Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Baseball is a funny game. The Cardinals failed to score yesterday, not just in the 1st inning, but for the full 9 innings. That comes one day after scoring 16 runs against the same opponent. Noah Syndergaard draws the unenviable task of trying to shut down this powerful St. Louis lineup for the second day in a row. Syndergaard’s overall numbers have been poor with a 5.94 ERA, but he’s been pretty effective in the opening frame with a 6-2 NRFI record and 3.17 xFIP, however both instances he’s allowed an early run this season have been on the road.
The Dodgers offense has the more favorable matchup with Miles Mikolas taking the ball for St. Louis. The righty has posted a 5-4 NRFI record this season and just 1-3 at home. His xFIP is nearly double his actual FIP this season (4.80 to 2.85), which tells me Mikolas is actually pitching worse than his already mediocre NRFI record indicates. St. Louis has been the most profitable YRFI team at home this season going 19-5 netting over 13 units. The Dodgers have been equally effective on the road, with a 15-7 YRFI record for a net profit of over 7 units. I’m betting on both of those trends to continue today.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-140)
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