Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, May 13th.
Top MLB Resources:
(All odds via Draftkings)
Mariners at Tigers
Hello Bryce Miller. The young righty has been absolutely brilliant in his first two MLB starts with a 2-0 NRFI record with a miniscule xFIP in the opening frame. Miller struck out 10 against the Athletics in his MLB debut, then followed that up with 6 scoreless and 5 strikeouts against the dangerous Astros in his last start. Today he gets the Tigers, who have shown signs of life on offense lately, but are still below average scoring runs in the 1st inning this season with a rate of 24% (9-for-37).
The other side of this pitching matchup is not as strong, with Alex Faedo struggling a bit in his first start of the season last time out against the Cardinals. To be fair, that was on the road against a tough lineup, now he returns home and faces a Seattle team that has posted a 7-3 NRFI record thus far in May. Both pitchers are basically getting a fresh look at the opposing lineups, which is advantage NRFI. If Faedo can navigate the Mariners offense in the top of the 1st, I feel confident Miller will close things out in the bottom half.
Bet: No Run First Inning (-110)
Cardinals at Red Sox
This game features one of the highest totals on the board today and for good reason, with both Steven Matz and Chris Sale pitching to ERA’s north of 5.00. Matz has registered a 4-3 NRFI record this season and is somehow 3-0 on the road despite relatively poor numbers in the 1st inning including a .355 average against and a 6.74 FIP. Sale has the higher overall ERA but has fared slightly better in the opening frame with a 5-2 NRFI record and .214 batting average against, but his FIP is over 7.00.
Sale has the advantage of basically getting a fresh look against this Cardinals lineup, with just 6 career PAs against. However St. Louis will likely send lefty killers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to the plate, a big reason why the Cardinals have the 3rd highest wRC+ against southpaws in the opening frame this season. The Red Sox lineup hasn’t been as strong against lefties, but they’ve had a ton of success against Matz with a .338 batting average against in 74 career ABs. Justin Turner (4-for-17, 2 HR), Rafael Devers (4-for-9), and Alex Verdugo (4-for-11) are all projected at the top of the order.
Overall the YRFI is 16-5 at Fenway Park this season and I expect that trend to continue today.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
