Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 with my best bets yesterday which moved my record to 27-23 on VSIN writeups this season. The Padres/Reds game was surprisingly low-scoring until extra innings, which did not bode well for my YRFI, but the NRFI nightcap was successful with the Rays and Mariners getting through the 1st inning unscathed.
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You could do worse than going right back to the well today with both the Padres/Reds YRFI and Rays/Mariners NRFI, but there are other spots on the board I like a little better, so I decided to turn my attention elsewhere. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, July 1st.
All odds via DraftKings
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Eury Perez will put his unblemished 9-0 NRFI record on the line against the team with the highest first-inning scoring rate at home this season (51%). Yesterday, Atlanta pushed across five early runs against Bryan Hoeing, but this will be a different test today against the rookie sensation Perez who has a 36% strikeout rate and just a .129 batting average against in the first inning.
Charlie Morton has posted a mediocre 10-5 NRFI record this season, but his first-inning data leads me to believe he’s been a little unlucky with an xFIP below 3.00 and a 30% strikeout rate. He draws a Marlins offense that has posted a minuscule 17% scoring rate in the first inning this season (14-for-83) which is the lowest in MLB.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eury Perez vs:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (never faced)
Ozzie Albies (never faced)
Austin Riley (never faced)
Charlie Morton vs:
Luis Arraez (2-for-5)
Jorge Soler (1-for-11, HR)
Bryan De La Cruz (4-for-10)
Bet: No Run First Inning (+100)
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Both teams scored in the first inning yesterday, but today’s pitching matchup tells me we might be in for a slower start. Hunter Brown has posted an impressive 12-3 NRFI record and a minuscule 2.56 xFIP in the first inning, which is the lowest of any starter on the board today. The rookie has actually performed better on the road this season with a 3.21 ERA compared to 4.12 at home. Brown draws a Rangers lineup that has posted a 36% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season, just above the MLB average.
Nathan Eovaldi has posted a 13-3 NRFI record this season and is a perfect 6-0 at Globe Life Park. He faces an Astros lineup that has perked up the past week scoring an early run in four of their last seven games. Overall, Houston has a 39% scoring rate on the road this season which is well above the MLB average.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Hunter Brown vs:
Marcus Semien (2-for-6)
Corey Seager (0-for-3)
Nathaniel Lowe (0-for-6)
Nathan Eovaldi vs:
Jose Altuve (9-for-33, 3 HR)
Alex Bregman (8-for-16, HR)
Kyle Tucker (3-for-11, HR)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
