Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
Last Sunday’s best bet was a winner which makes it two straight and 4-1 overall since changing the format of this column. It’s been about a month of me utilizing this new Under 1.5 parlay approach and it’s definitely been profitable so far. I’m excited to put this strategy to use next season in full as I continue my growth betting into this market. As we enter the final weekend be extra careful with examining lineups and make sure the top guys are in if you're betting the YRFI. On the flip side, if you see a lineup devoid of regular starters, it might be a decent idea to back a NRFI.
Keep reading to find out my best bet for Friday, September 29th, which was priced at -164 on DraftKings at the time of publication. I recommend betting two units.
Best Bets Season Record: 61-61 (50.0%) -15.72u -5.8% ROI
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Nick Pivetta is 12-3 to the NRFI this season, including 6-1 on the road with a 30% strikeout rate in the first inning. His recent form has been stellar with 2.94 xFIP and 0.91 WHIP over his last five starts. He gets to face an Orioles lineup that has an above average scoring rate at home this season, but fresh off clinching the AL East title last night, I expect a sluggish start in Baltimore.
John Means has just a 1-2 NRFI record this season but the short sample makes it hard to diagnose. He’s coming off his best start since returning, pitching into the eighth inning last Saturday at Cleveland and allowing just one hit, a solo home run, with four strikeouts and just one walk. The Red Sox have been below average on the road in the first inning and have scored just 16 runs off lefties in the opening frame all season, the fourth fewest in all of baseball.
Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 1st inning (-370)
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Ken Waldichuk is 15-6 to the NRFI this season with a .211 batting average against in the first inning. He has pretty solid data across the board for a pitcher I didn’t give much respect to most of the season. He draws an Angels lineup that has taken a nosedive over the final month, scoring just nine total runs in the first inning with the fourth-lowest wRC+.
Chase Silseth returns from a concussion that has kept him out for the past few weeks. Prior to that he posted a 5-2 NRFI record with an electric 39% strikeout rate in the first inning. Obviously I’m a little concerned with the variance of this being his first inning back from the IL, but I trust his stuff and he gets to face arguably the worst lineup in baseball. The A’s have scored just five runs in the first inning this month, the fewest in baseball.
Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 1st inning (-370)
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